Golden Knights vs. Stars Odds
| Golden Knights Odds | -105 |
| Stars Odds | -115 |
| Over/Under | 6 (+100 / -120) |
| Time | 8:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN+ |
| Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute NHL Odds here. | |
Vegas will head into Dallas for what is essentially a do-or-die affair, which offers a great opportunity for it to make amends for some bad losses last week. Even so, the Knights would need a lot of luck to sneak into the postseason.
For Dallas, the proposition is simple: beat the Knights in regulation on Tuesday at home and clinch a return to the postseason after a disappointing miss last season.
Can the Stars put the finishing touches on their return to the postseason?
Vegas' Luck to Turn This Week?
The Knights' late collapse on Sunday can only truly be classified as somewhat of a choke, even if the likelihood of such an event occurring again is slim-to-none.
Vegas firmly outplayed San Jose all game long, with 46 shots to 29 and an expected goals score of 5.15 to 2.71. The Sharks then scored twice with an extra attacker, including a game-tying goal from Timo Meier with one second left.
That goal outlined a crucial factor that we will see all playoffs long: bounces go a long, long way in determining hockey games. From a handicapping perspective, evaluating at what rate a result should have happened based on game-play, not based off of lucky breaks, is a crucial factor to success.
A lot of people believe Vegas is deserving of this kind of luck this season, and whether that is fair or not is not important here. The fact is that the Knights did simply deserve better results last week.
The Knights' 2-2-2 record over the last six games has put their playoff hopes on life support, but a 53.1% expected goals rate is a sign that things could have undoubtedly gone better.
A regulation win here would up the Knights' playoff chances to 30.8%, according to Moneypuck.com, so there is a real chance Vegas can still sneak in with a win here.
Vegas is finally playing at close to full strength, and in turn, its top three lines hold a wealth of offensive talent. We surely have not seen this group entirely click yet, but it's certainly fair to say this is a very dangerous lineup right now.
Logan Thompson will start in goal for the Knights, and he has played to a +1.3 goals saved above expected rating with a .917 save % throughout 16 games played this season.
Stars Winning Close Games
Dallas took care of business on Saturday in game that proved to be as perfect of a spot as you could ask for. The Stars managed a solid 3-2 result over the Kraken at home.
The contest again outlined the club's lack of depth behind the top unit of Roope Hintz, Joe Pavelski and Jason Robertson. All three have been spectacular this season, and that unit is next to impossible to stop.
The concern continues to be that the lines behind that trio have not controlled play at effective enough rates this season. That is why I feel Vegas has a slight edge compared to the Stars.
Dallas has controlled play to a solid 50.24 xGF% over it's last seven contests, and similar to much of the season, it won three-of-four single-goal decisions over that stretch.
Close-game success has been a part of the Stars' path this season. That has them skating at somewhat of an inflated record, with a -10 goal differential certainly being a negative comment.
Golden Knights vs. Stars Pick
I think if you polled the fanbases of every Western Conference team, the vast majority would say they would prefer Dallas to sneak into the playoffs compared to the Knights. That is likely because the upside of this Knights roster is far beyond the Stars.
When true to form, the Knights have more to offer than a Stars group that has been overly reliant upon a lethal top unit. Vegas has posted better underlying numbers of late, and its overall play has been better than its results suggest.
An unlucky result against New Jersey and a late collapse vs. San Jose — in a game in which it dominated for 58+ minutes — should not steer us away from backing the better team here at a plus number.
This should be a close, hard-fought game in what is truly the Knights' last gasp at a postseason berth. I see more value on them as a side at +100, and I would play that down to -110.
Pick: Vegas Golden Knights +100
