Hurricanes vs. Maple Leafs Odds
| Hurricanes Odds | -120 |
| Maple Leafs Odds | +100 |
| Over / Under | 6.5 -115 / -105 |
The Hurricanes will look to continue charging up the Eastern Conference standings Saturday after a poor start to the campaign. They remain out of the playoffs on points percentage, but they have made up significant ground of late and are still priced among the cup favorites at +1300.
The Maple Leafs will look to bounce-back after losing for the fourth time in five games Friday in Columbus, a span which has seen them allow five goals against per game.
Carolina Hurricanes
The Hurricanes have played to a mark of 5-2-3 in the last 10 games, a mark which if anything undersells their form. An 0-3 record in shootout/3-on-3 in that sample helps to hide the actual level of their play. They have played to a 54.46% expected goal rating with a true goal differential of +10.
A healthy Andrei Svechnikov should help alleviate some of the Hurricanes finishing concerns moving forward. That was the case Thursday, as he netted a hat-trick in his fifth game back since returning from injury.
They have began to look more and more like the defensive juggernaut we have traditionally seen throughout the Rod Brind'Amour era. The true strength of their defensive play has began to shine through as Pyotr Kochetkov has finally offered stable goaltending recently.
Kochetkov owns a .944 save percentage in his last seven starts, with a record of 4-1-2. He has played to a -4.0 GSAx and .899 save % on the season, and is confirmed as Saturday's starter.
Toronto Maple Leafs
The sky is falling again in Toronto after a 6-5 overtime loss Friday in Columbus, which drew an absurd media response for Game 33 of the season. You would never guess the Leafs are still sitting 10th in the league in points percentage listening to Friday's postgame reaction, and it will be interesting to see the response from the group in Saturday's contest.
The Leafs have legitimately taken steps back defensively in the early going this season compared to what we have seen throughout the previous three years. That point was drawing far less attention prior to top goaltender Joseph Woll going down with injury. As Ilya Samsonov continues to put forth downright horrific results, it has become a much more high profile talking point.
We can safely assume that Martin Jones will get the start for Toronto Saturday. He has played to a +3.4 GSAx and .914 save % across seven starts this season. As Samsonov has become entirely unplayable, the pressure on Jones to continue putting forth surprisingly strong results becomes immense.
Jones put up an .887 save percentage in 48 games with Seattle in 2022-23, as well as an .870 save percentage in five AHL games this season. As difficult as it is to project goaltending, it still seems hard to say he will be a quality #1 option in the NHL this season over a larger sample of play.
The Leafs have allowed a 3.48 xGA/60 rating over the last 10 games, which is the 10th-worst mark in the league. The eye-test would agree that the teams defensive play has been far from crisp. They do have the offensive talents to outscore flawed defensive play and are generating plenty of quality looks, but the totality of their play has not often looked to be that of a legitimate cup contender of late.
(Ready to get in on the Hurricanes betting action in North Carolina? You’ll soon be able to join in on NC sports betting, as the state is expected to come online in 2024.)
Hurricanes vs. Maple Leafs
Betting Pick & Prediction
The Hurricanes catch the Leafs in leg two of a traveling back-to-back spot here, and they are capable of playing exactly the right type of game to take advantage of this spot. Their underlying results remain excellent, and they are more capable of paying off their strong control of play with Svechnikov back in the mix.
The 'Canes will bring a heavy forecheck, which should work well to expose a Leafs defensive core which has not managed the puck overly well of late.
If the Hurricanes continue to play this way while receiving average goaltending, everybody will be discussing how they are again a true cup favorite. While Jones has played well so far, that has been quite surprising and comes in a small sample. It would make sense to see his results continue to trend downwards, and I do not believe he offers an edge over Kochetkov in goal.
With the idea that this goaltending matchup is close and strong arguments as to why the 'Canes will carry more of the play in this spot, backing Carolina at anything better than -115 presents value.
Pick: Carolina Hurricanes ML +100 (FanDuel, Play to -115)
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