Jets vs. Coyotes Odds
| Jets Odds | -240 |
| Coyotes Odds | +195 |
| Over/Under | 6 (-105/-115) |
| Time | 4 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN+ |
| Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute NHL Odds here. | |
The Winnipeg Jets fly out to the desert to take on the Arizona Coyotes in a matinee matchup. This season series is tied up at 1-1, and the Jets come in as the heavy road favorites at -240, while the Yotes are the underdog at +195.
One word to describe the Jets’ season thus far is “confusing.” Stacked with talent, they’ve been incredibly inconsistent, albeit, they’re still in the playoff hunt. Friday’s matchup against the Avalanche was a heartbreaker though, as they blew a 3-0 lead. They’re currently 4-4-2 in their last 10 games.
While this season is essentially over for Arizona, it's been playing better hockey as of late. It stomped on the talented Golden Knights on Friday, so it'll be heading into this matchup with some confidence. Arizona is 4-6 in its last 10, so just about on par to its counterparts.
Inconsistent Jets Are More Talented Than Record
Earlier when I said that this Jets team is confusing, all you need to do is look at their roster. You can see that they’re loaded with one of the deeper teams in the league, a solid defense and a Vezina-winning goalie. They’re missing dazzling forward Nikolaj Ehlers and possibly Andrew Copp (who’s day-to-day), but they also have a team of Pierre-Luc Dubois, Kyle Connor, Mark Schiefele and Blake Wheeler. Perhaps next year, they can hire a new coach and right the ship.
With a loaded team, you’d think the Jets would be an elite team at driving play. The issue is that they’re not. They’re 20th in goals per game (2.87), 19th in expected goals with a 48.61 xGF% and are average at generating high-danger chances. On the man advantage, the Jets are around the middle-of-the-pack as they score 20.7% of the time.
What’s even more mind-boggling is the talent Winnipeg has on the defensive end, but the poor performance doesn't match. They allow the fourth most high-danger chances and also allow 2.98 goals per game. With an elite goaltender, that’s far too many goals. On the penalty kill, they’re one of the worst as well, with a 76.6% success rate.
Former Vezina winner Connor Hellebuyck is doing the best he can with the roster that’s placed in front of him. The American is posting a .912 SV% and an eighth-best 14.9 GSAx (Goals Saved Above Expected), while back up Eric Comrie is holding it strong as well. Comrie has a .916 SV% and a 2.9 GSAx. With the Jets playing a weak Coyotes team, it wouldn’t be out of the question if coach Dave Lowry went with Comrie, so it’s best to keep tabs on it.
Coyotes Continue Journey Towards No. 1 Pick
Before the season even started, most knew what the Coyotes’ fate would be. Everyone thought they’d be contending for the No. 1 pick, and they’ve lived up to those expectations with flying colors. There’s a solid foundation in place though, as they have decent talent up front with Clayton Keller, Lawson Crouse, Phil Kessel and Nick Schmaltz. However, in order to get better, you have to get worse, which is what the Yotes are doing this season.
It’s not surprising that the Coyotes are the worst team at driving play. Since Montreal is playing its best hockey this year, Arizona is back in the bottom of the barrel, scoring 2.27 goals a game (last overall), and it has a league-worst 42.64 xGF. Not only that, but the Coyotes also are poor at creating high-danger chances and have a league-worst power play scoring at an 11.7% rate.
Defensively, they’re just as bad, allowing 3.58 goals a game, and the sixth-most high-danger chances. They also hold the second worst penalty kill, with a 73.5% success rate.
You have to feel for the Coyotes netminders. Scott Wedgewood and Karel Vejmelka have done a fairly decent job at preventing pucks in the net, but with a poor defense, there’s not much they can do. Wedgewood and Vejmelka seem to be splitting the starts these days, with Wedgewood averaging a .911 SV% and a -1.6 GSAx. Vejmelka, on the other hand has a .900 SV% and a -11.0 GSAx. Wedgewood has had three straight starts, so I’d assume Arizona would go with Vejmelka, but it’s too early to tell.
Jets vs. Coyotes Pick
While the Coyotes' win against Vegas was extremely impressive this past Friday, it’s very hard for me to back them, given their struggles.
I’m not even very high on the Jets anymore, but I do think they have a much higher chance at coming out successful. Even though the underlying numbers don’t look great for Winnipeg, I ultimately think the talent comes out and overtakes Arizona and its Swiss-cheese defense.
I’m also weary on Arizona’s ability to penetrate the Jets defense and goaltending. If Winnipeg holds the Yotes to a limited amount of high-danger chances, I can it them coming out on top.
Pick: Winnipeg Jets -1.5 (+115)
