Jets vs. Maple Leafs Odds
| Jets Odds | +116 |
| Maple Leafs Odds | -140 |
| Over / Under | 6.5 +102 / -124 |
If you had looked at this matchup at the start of the season, you probably would have assumed that the Toronto Maple Leafs and Winnipeg Jets' positions in the standings would be reversed. Instead, we're approaching the All-Star Break, and it's the Jets who instead rank as one of the best in the league while the Maple Leafs are fending off challengers for a playoff berth.
Toronto was relegated to a wild-card spot after the Tampa Bay Lightning's convincing win on Tuesday night. That leaves the Leafs just one point ahead of the Detroit Red Wings and three points clear of the New Jersey Devils for the seventh seed.
Their 2-4-1 record over the last couple of weeks has let teams sneak up on them in the standings and added unnecessary pressure. The Maple Leafs will feel all that and more as they host one of the top teams in the NHL.
Thankfully, Winnipeg has been mired in an analytics slump, tilting the ice in Toronto's favor.
Find my Jets vs. Maple Leafs prediction and NHL betting preview below.
Winnipeg Jets
The Jets continue to lead the mighty Colorado Avalanche and Dallas Stars in the Central Division. Their 64 points leave them with just a one-point lead over their division rivals, albeit with two games in hand. It's imperative that they make the most of those opportunities, but unfortunately, their metrics suggest the opposite.
The Jets turned a corner with their efforts around the middle of December. From the start of the season until December 9, 2023, Winnipeg had an uninspired 48.8% Expected Goals For percentage, ranking 20th in the league. Since then, the Jets have reached cruising altitude, operating at a 56.2% clip and sitting third. However, a recent slide is included in that sample, suggesting more losses will follow.
Over their past six outings, the Jets have been dismantled. Winnipeg has been limited to eight or fewer High-danger Chances in all but two of those contests while out-chancing their opponents just once. Predictably, this has eroded their Expected Goals For rating, falling to 52.2% overall and 48.1% over their last three.
The Jets' 4-2-0 record over that stretch is incompatible with their metrics, suggesting a turbulent ride awaits them.
Toronto Maple Leafs
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The Leafs are positioned in direct opposition to the Jets analytically. Toronto enters Wednesday's interconference battle with just two wins over its previous seven, despite putting forth some elite efforts.
The Leafs have outplayed their opponents in four of seven, eclipsing the 60.0% Expected Goals For threshold on two occasions. Pointing the lens back even further reveals game scores above 60% in four of nine, with a cumulative 53.4% Expected Goals For rating.
Improved defensive play has been the foundation of the Leafs' analytic success, and it has been needed to offset their goaltending woes. Toronto has limited five of its last nine opponents to nine or fewer Quality Chances, 9.6 per game. More importantly, the Leafs have dialed up the offensive intensity by winning the Quality Chances battle in six of nine.
Bettors should be aware of two factors working against the Leafs. As mentioned, goaltending has been a weakness all season. Although Martin Jones elevated this team for a stretch, he was operating above career norms. When he slid back into normal ranges, more losses followed.
Additionally, the Leafs return home following an extended Western Conference road trip, which historically doesn't play well for Eastern Conference teams.
Nevertheless, at this price we're placing more weight on their on-ice product overcoming those two factors working against them.
Jets vs. Maple Leafs
Betting Pick & Prediction
From a superficial viewpoint, the Jets appear to be a worthy adversary; however, there are a few concerning trends emerging from their underlying metrics. The Jets have been consistently outplayed lately, and they shouldn't have as many wins as they do.
Conversely, the Maple Leafs have been overcompensating for their suboptimal goaltending, but this has yet to result in more wins.
Toronto can use home ice to its advantage on Wednesday night by neutralizing the Winnipeg's top scorers and deploying Auston Matthews and company under more ideal scoring circumstances.
Back the Maple Leafs at -140 or better to win at home.
Pick: Maple Leafs -120 (PointsBet | Bet to -140)
