Jets vs. Sabres Odds
| Jets Odds | -165 |
| Sabres Odds | +140 |
| Over/Under | 6 (-120 / +100) |
| Time | 7 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN+ |
| Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute NHL Odds here. | |
Buffalo extended its point streak to six games in one of the wildest games of the season Monday in Chicago. It will now play host to a red-hot Winnipeg Jets club that's on an 8-3-0 tear, which has left it a sliver of hope at cracking the postseason.
Both of these clubs have offered some strong play of late, so what can we expect here?
Buffalo Coming Off Incredible Comeback
Buffalo put together one of the more inspired comebacks seen this season Monday, digging itself out of a four-goal deficit before winning in the final 10 seconds on a fluky Tage Thompson winner.
The 6-5 final went as another high-scoring and closely contested contest, which is the exact type of game we have seen a lot of from Buffalo lately.
Victor Olofsson twice displayed his ridiculous shot with some pretty finishes, and it's truly been shocking we haven't seen more of that this season. He's one of several Sabres currently in great offensive form, and Buffalo has scored more effectively altogether of late.
Over the last five games, the Sabres have scored four goals per game, including some strong showings against strong defensive teams in the Penguins and Rangers.
The problem has been that the Sabres continue to allow a ton at the other end, giving up 3.80 goals per game over that span. That's not a far cry from their season-long mark of 3.51.
A 2.55 xGA per 60 minutes mark over the last five games suggests Buffalo could be faring better with regards to goals allowed, but the main problem all season has been poor goaltending.
I expect we see Craig Anderson get the start here given how the last game went for Dustin Tokarski. Anderson has played to a -5.5 goals saved above expected rating with a .901 save percentage in 22 games.
Jets' Strong Run Fueled by Offense
Similar to Winnipeg's opposition Wednesday, the Jets recent surge has been led primarily by its strong offensive play. The key difference is that the Jets' talent suggests the strong offensive output's should continue moving forward.
The underlying numbers agree, as Winnipeg have generated 3.41 expected goals per 60 minutes in March, scoring an excellent 3.85 goals per game.
However, contrary to the Sabres, Winnipeg has actually allowed a lot of chances against of late while being bailed out by considerably stronger goaltending options, most notably Connor Hellebuyck.
In March, Winnipeg has allowed 3.44 xGA/60, the league's fifth-worst mark over that time.
Jets vs. Sabres Pick
The Sabres really appear to be buying into what coach Don Granato is preaching of late and are skating with a ton of energy in recent contests. The problem for Buffalo is that it's receiving some of the worst goaltending in the NHL.
So, although the Sabres are playing inspired hockey, they've been continually forced to try to outscore some soft goals against. I think we could see a similar narrative play out here.
Winnipeg is by no means a defensive juggernaut, and I think Buffalo can stay hot offensively with a home contest here. It's hard to see the Sabres keeping Winnipeg's dominant top-six under wraps, so I see this one being of the high-scoring variety.
At -120, I feel we have enough value to back the over at 6. I'd play that total down to -135.
Pick: Over 6 -120 (play to -135)
