Kraken vs. Avalanche Odds
| Kraken Odds | +188 |
| Avalanche Odds | -230 |
| Over / Under | 6.5 +100 / -122 |
The Colorado Avalanche are quickly proving why they are Stanley Cup favorites. Colorado won six straight games to open the year before dropping three of four on a tepid road trip.
Getting back to Ball Arena was all that was needed to right the ship, though, and the Avs bounced back with a commanding 6-3 win over the New Jersey Devils on Tuesday night.
The Avs are back in the driver's seat on Thursday when they host the struggling Seattle Kraken. Seattle's playoff success isn't keeping the Kraken afloat these days. The NHL's newest franchise has dropped nine of their first 13 games to start the season, albeit with three of those losses coming in overtime or a shootout.
The betting market has taken a firm stance on the Avalanche, and that position is vindicated with some noteworthy analytics.
Seattle Kraken
No one can take away the Kraken's triumphs from last year, but it's becoming increasingly unlikely they match the heights they reached in 2023-24.
Last year, Seattle ended the season with the 12th-ranked expected goals-for rating at 51.7%. However, their actual benchmark was substantially higher, coming in at 56.6% and ranking second in the NHL.
What we're seeing play out over the early part of this season is unavoidable regression, and that spiral will likely continue for the foreseeable future.
The Kraken's current analytics are contributing to the murky outlook. Seattle sits below average with a disappointing 49.8% expected goals-for rating at 5-on-5. Moreover, they've compromised their defensive structure of late, giving up 10 or more high-danger chances in four of their past six.
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Predictably, the Kraken have out-chanced their opponents only twice over that stretch, an unfortunate standard that will be perpetuated against a superior Avs team at home.
Despite the defensive letdowns, Seattle's offense remains a strong point. The Kraken have gone north of 10 quality chances in three of their last five games while recording four or more goals in all but two of those outings.
Although we haven't seen robust output from them at 5-on-5, we are anticipating scoring to come more naturally for the Kraken. Collectively, they have the third-worst shooting percentage in the league and are operating well below expected.
Seattle's 20 goals at 5-on-5 are lower than the expected value of 27.0. Still, improved scoring won't offset their defensive deficiencies.
Colorado Avalanche
Colorado is exactly where you'd expect them to be analytically.
The Avs sit atop the expected goals-for rating this year while putting together a superb 57.7% mark. Predictably, they are asserting themselves on both ends of the ice, getting top-tier production out of their forwards corps without compromising their defensive integrity.
Heading into Thursday's tilt, the Avalanche are averaging 24.5 scoring and 10.0 high-danger chances per game. Equally as impressive, opponents have been limited to just 18.6 and 6.6, respectively, resulting in two of the best relative ratings across the NHL.
The Avs' 56.9% scoring chance and 60.1% high-danger chance rating are good enough for third. Flexing their muscles at home against a disappointing Kraken squad should only accelerate those metrics.
Colorado's dominance is clearly illustrated in its game scores. The Avs have outplayed their opponents in all but one of their 11 games this year to assert themselves as the best in the league.
As expected, most of their metrics improve on home ice, best encapsulated in the Avalanche's 58.3% expected goals-for rating at Ball Arena.
Colorado has been at home all week, and in the middle of a brief three-game home stand, they should be well rested for this one.
Kraken vs. Avalanche
Betting Pick & Prediction
When these teams met earlier in the season, Seattle mustered a laughable five high-danger opportunities. And that was at home.
The Kraken face a more sincere challenge from the Avalanche, who are also competing with altitude challenges.
Consequently, the Avs should have free reign to dictate pace and generate an ample amount of scoring chances.
We're not expecting the Kraken to break out of their slump, but they should generate enough offense to help send this one over the total. We're playing over 6.5, and as of this writing, we're getting it at plus money.
