Kraken vs. Flames Odds
| Kraken Odds | +235 |
| Flames Odds | -280 |
| Over/Under | 6 |
| Time | 10 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN+ |
| Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute NHL odds here. | |
The Kraken travel to Calgary in what will mark an emotional return home for former Flames captain Mark Giordano. Meanwhile, the Flames will look to extend their win streak to nine games.
This contest will surely offer more incentive for a Kraken team that has fallen way out of the playoff mix as they seek a huge victory for their captain in his return home. Will that offer reason enough for them to hang around with a red-hot Flames team?
Calgary Flames Are Red Hot
It seemed a clear probability that the Flames were knocked off stride after a strong beginning to the season by a number of scheduling lapses, followed by the brutal Eastern road swing against the Hurricanes, Lightning and Panthers. And that narrative continues to look more and more accurate as their dominance becomes more apparent.
The Flames have won 10 of their last 11 contests with an average goal differential of +2.90 over that span, playing to a league-leading 63.63 xGF%, which suggests the dominant results can continue.
The last 10 cup winners have been teams averaging 6.7th place in all-situations expected goals over the 82-game regular season, and the Flames to this point sit in the top spot in that regard.
The Flames' top trio of Johnny Gaudreau, Matthew Tkachuk and Elias Lindholm has arguably been the very best line the league has to offer, and holds the best even strength goal differential of any unit — notably outscoring its high expected goals percentage of 63.2 throughout 573.6 minutes together.
The concern that the Flames were only truly dominant when that line was on the ice — mainly Gaudreau — is going out the window, as a second line composed of Andrew Mangiapane, Mikael Backlund and Blake Coleman continues to find better form. The addition of Tyler Toffoli to the third line has that unit offering considerably more scoring upside as well.
So with the Flames holding solid top-two defensive pairings and a great goaltending duo behind their offense that's starting to look far more balanced, this team has the composition to claim it is a viable cup candidate this season.
Jacob Markstrom should likely start here, and holds a +11.7 goals saved above expected rating with a .927 save percentage throughout 37 games played so far this season.
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Seattle Kraken Crumbling
Seattle's defensive play has regressed to an extent, which is a huge concern as that seems to be the last remaining area offering upside from this group. We have seen shockingly bad goaltending from a duo that was perceived to be a strength all season long, and this offense was never pegged to hold much for scoring upside.
Over their last six games the Kraken have allowed a 2.99 xGF/60 rate. Considering that four of those games came against competition that has generated below-average amounts of chances for, that could be a bad sign as Seattle heads into a building where the Flames have been torching the opposition.
I would argue the bodies on hand may allow the Kraken to trend upwards defensively as we have seen much of the season, but the bad news is that Seattle has continued to generate very little at the other end of the ice, with just a 2.48 xGF/60 mark over those six contests, as well as allowing far more goals than expected.
That doesn't touch on the other big concern, which has been the Kraken's goaltending. I feel we will see Chris Driedger get a start here, in what only seems like a fair move considering Grubauer's struggles again this week.
Driedger holds a -5.1 goals saved above expected rating with a .890 save percentage throughout 14 games played. Should Grubauer go, it's been an even bigger struggle.
Kraken-Flames Pick
The gap in results between these two clubs has been very drastic. Even though this is a big night for the Kraken, that's far from enough reason to think they can hang around with a Flames team that has simply been annihilating teams on its home ice.
As we saw last month when the Rangers lost to the Wild on Henrik Lundqvist's jersey ceremony night — the same night the Capitals trounced the Stars on Sergei Zubov's retirement — these extra incentives don't make wins a "lock," with players more or less bringing it all every game to begin with.
The Kraken continue to allow a ton of goals against, and it's easy to see the Flames put together another big offensive output here — as they have done against some considerably sharper defensive squads than the Kraken.
I'm going to play a unit on the Flames puck-line at -110, as well a half-unit play on the Flames ML + Over 5.5, which currently sits at +125 on DraftKings. Should you be unable to find that price with any of your available options, parlaying the moneyline and a total of 6 is fine as well.
Pick: Flames -1.5 | Bet to: -130
Bonus Pick: 0.5 Unit Two-Leg Parlay — Flames ML + Over
