Kraken vs Lightning Odds
| Kraken Odds | +122 |
| Lightning Odds | -146 |
| Over / Under | 6.5 -102 / -120 |
After a surprising trip to the Western Conference Semi-Finals last season, the Kraken have struggled to a 2-5-2 record out of the gates this season. A nightmare schedule has been part of the problem, but things will not get any easier as they finish up their road swing versus the Lightning.
Find a betting prediction, preview and pick for Kraken vs Lightning on Monday night below.
Seattle Kraken
Kraken coach Dave Hakstol recently stated that "there's a little hangover" among his side, who found surprising success last season. His group has not played overly well and that is a convenient excuse.
It's also fair to say that the absurd travel schedule the team has suffered through to play quality opponents hasn't helped anything. Having already come out on the wrong end of three one goal games also doesn't help things.
The process still looks more or less fine for Seattle. The urgency to get things moving in the right direction has showed, but bounces are going against them early on. They have lost several highly competitive games to high quality teams. They have played to a solid 50.37% expected goals share at even strength.
Matty Beniers and Jared McCann continue to show as legitimate top line forwards, and lead the way for a deep Kraken offence filled with strong play driving forwards who support well defensively. The back-end still looks solid as well, and overall it does seem likely Seattle can control play at a league average rate or better this season.
Part of the reason for Seattle's overachievement last season was historic finishing rates in five-on-five play. Many observers anticipated a potential step back on that front could cause regression, and that has been the case early on as the Kraken have shot just 5.57%.
Philipp Grubauer produced league average results in goal last season, and that has been the case early on as he owns a +0.5 GSAx in four starts. He will likely start Monday. If the start happens to go to Joey Daccord however, that does not move the needle from a handicapping perspective.
Tampa Bay Lightning
The Lightning's odds of making a seventh straight playoff appearance took a significant hit when star netminder Andrei Vasilevskiy was forced to have preseason surgery. Considering they might only hope to tread water until his return, a 4-2-2 record to start the year will be taken as a huge positive.
They have received shockingly strong goaltending from Jonas Johansson, who owns a +6.2 GSAx and .925 save % in his opening seven appearances. Johansson was dominant in the preseason too, and played to a +3.9 GSAx in three appearances last year.
It is entirely possible Johansson's game has improved considerably from when he was a pure fade candidate, but it still seems highly unlikely that he should be one of the leagues best goaltenders this season.
If he does regress and Tampa continues to play the same game offered thus far, it will likely lead to worse results. The Lightning own just a 42.77% expected goals share at even strength, and have allowed the third most expected goals against per 60. Victor Hedman continues to take steps backwards at even strength, which seems to fly under the radar year after year.
The Lightning's elite special teams play will always help to hide more modest even strength plays. It's also hard to quantify the brilliant playmaking abilities from stars like Nikita Kucherov and Brayden Point.
Kraken vs. Lightning
Betting Pick & Prediction
The Kraken are slightly too large an underdog priced at +130 in this matchup. They have played a respectable game considering their nightmare schedule to start the season. By many indications the Kraken's underlying play is similar to the Lightning's thus far, and at even strength they could even own more of the play.
The Lightning's elite offensive talents and strong powerplay should them to create and finish those chances at a higher clip than Seattle.
Even still, the greatest reason Tampa has a far better record than Seattle in the early going has been excellent goaltending from Jonas Johansson.
Johansson has clearly taken steps forward, but I still can't view him as one of the best goaltenders in the league. Regression towards his incredible early form is likely coming.
Getting the Kraken at this long of a number holds value when the chance creation between these two teams will likely be fairly even.
Pick: Seattle Kraken +130 (Bet365, Play to +122)
