Lightning vs. Flyers Odds
| Lightning Odds | -114 |
| Flyers Odds | -105 |
| Over / Under | 6.5 -104/ -118 |
Here's everything you need to know about Lightning vs. Flyers on Tuesday, Jan. 23 – our expert NHL prediction and pick.
The lamp was lit all night the last time these teams squared off. Tampa claimed a 5-2 victory on home ice in that contest, but will we see another high-scoring affair on Tuesday evening?
Let's dig into the NHL odds and make an Lightning vs. Flyers prediction and pick.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Tampa's offense has been dialed in recently, averaging four goals per game over its past five. That has been the trend all season as the Lightning rank 11th in the league in goals scored per game, first in power play percentage and sixth in shooting percentage.
Based on their underlying metrics, regression is unlikely as they also rank in the top half of the league in expected goals for per 60 minutes (xGF/60) at 5-on-5. However, the inability to keep the puck out of their own net is why this club is stuck in fifth place in the Atlantic Division.
This season, Tampa ranks 23rd in goals allowed per game. There are a couple factors for those poor defensive results.
First, the blue line is not nearly as good as it used to be, especially as defensemen Mikhail Sergachev and Erik Cernak remain sidelined with injuries. At 5-on-5, the Lightning rank 21st in expected goals against per 60 minutes (xGA/60).
Backing up this poor defense is goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy, who has been solid, but hasn't played up to his usual standards. He possesses a mere .901 SV% through 23 appearances.
(Are you in North Carolina? With North Carolina sports betting coming online this year, you’ll be able to bet legally on the Lightning at major sportsbooks. Learn more.)
Philadelphia Flyers
Philadelphia's offense has been inconsistent, which is why we are catching Over 6.5 at plus-money via DraftKings. However, this group is starting to put it together recently as it has scored four or more goals in four of its past six games.
The Flyers are averaging 4.4 goals scored per game over that stretch, and should be able to keep things rolling against a short-handed Tampa blue line. This offensive production will need to continue as the Lightning are likely to create a ton of pressure against goaltender Carter Hart, who is slated to start between the pipes on Tuesday.
Hart has allowed three or more goals in five of his past eight starts, posting a fade-worthy 3-3-2 record with a .883 SV% and a 3.56 GAA over that span. There has been an average of 7.1 goals scored per game over those eight starts.
These woes are likely to continue against the Lightning, a team Hart has notoriously struggled against. Through nine career starts against Tampa Bay, Hart is 1-7-1 with a .874 SV% and a 4.07 GAA.
Lightning vs. Flyers
Betting Pick & Prediction
There are a lot of reasons to like the over in this contest, especially at plus-money. Hart has been cold between the pipes, and his track record against Tampa Bay is terrible.
Vasilevskiy is projected to start across the ice and hasn't played up to his usual standards this year, though he is playing behind a deteriorating blue line that is missing two of its best defensive players due to injuries. Meanwhile, the Lightning's offense continues to fire on all cylinders as the usual suspects — Nikita Kucherov, Brayden Point, Victor Hedman and Steven Stamkos — are all right at the point-per-game mark (or in Kucherov's case, much higher).
I would play this line down to +100.
Pick: Over 6.5 (+105 at DraftKings | Play to +100)
