Lightning vs. Wild Odds
| Lightning Odds | -130 |
| Wild Odds | +110 |
| Over / Under | 6 -115 / -105 |
A 5-5-0 mark in their past 10 games has the Lightning sitting outside of a playoff spot in the competitive Eastern Conference. Tampa Bay is catching the Wild at a good time as Minnesota is fighting through the worst injury situation in the league.
The Wild's current roster shortage is why they're underdogs, but it seems possible their losses are not being accounted for enough. Let's dive a bit deeper into the NHL odds and make a prediction for Lightning vs. Wild.
Tampa Bay Lightning
The Lightning aren't the well-rounded powerhouse we've become accustomed to seeing in recent years, and their modest 18-16-5 record is a fair reflection of their overall play. It is essentially a 50/50 shot that they'll miss the playoffs this season, which would seemingly mark an official end to a modern dynasty.
In their past 10 games, the Lightning own an expected goals for rating of 43%, which is the 29th-worst mark in the league.
Victor Hedman's level continues to drop-off and Mikhail Sergachev had played at a disappointing level prior to his injury. The once vaunted blue-line is far from the strength it once was. Nick Paul hasn't been an effective two-way player and Steven Stamkos hasn't been dominant at even strength.
Still, this is essentially the worst form we've seen from this roster core at any point in time, but — based on prior years — it seems probable that they'll make a strong push for a playoff berth in the late stages of the season.
Their December schedule was a nightmare due to both travel and quality of competition, which surely helped exacerbate the current flaws in their makeup.
Andrei Vasilevskiy has struggled to an extent, relative to his lofty expectations since returning in mid-November. Playing in the worst defensive environment he's experienced in Tampa is surely part of the problem as he owns a +4.0 GSAx despite a .900 save %. He's likely to get the start Thursday.
Minnesota Wild
The Wild had been humming along under John Hynes. However, a string of crucial injuries helped to spur on a three-game losing skid. Kirill Kaprizov and Filip Gustavsson were both injured in Saturday's 4-2 loss to the Jets, and are arguably the two most valuable pieces on the roster.
Captain Jared Spurgeon was injured in Tuesday's loss to the Flames, and is still the second most important piece on the blue-line.
They join an already lengthy injury report, which features other important pieces in Mats Zuccarello, Jonas Brodin and Marcus Foligno.
Gustavsson had stabilized after a nightmare start to the season and was beginning to dominate the way he did last year when he put up a +24.2 GSAx. The drop off between he and Marc-Andre Fleury is highly significant as Fleury has played to a -4.1 GSAx and a .896 save % this season.
Fleury, who is likely to start Thursday, should be viewed as a below-average starting option at this point in his career.
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Lightning vs. Wild
Betting Pick & Prediction
It's important to think in terms of replacement value when handicapping and analyzing player absences. It's not about how many players are missing from a roster a certain time, but the value of who steps in to receive top minutes compared to who they are replacing.
The Wild's nightmare injury situation isn't being weighted heavily enough based on the odds for this game. Kaprizov and Gustavsson are arguably the Wild's two most important players, and there are several other crucial bodies out. Minnesota's recent play has been excellent, but it is hard to see that level holding.
The Lightning haven't been at their best by any means, but a tough schedule has also worked against them. This sets up as a great time to buy low on the the Lightning and sell high on the Wild.
The Lightning deserve to be bigger favorites than they are and betting them at anything better than -145 presents value.
Pick: Tampa Bay Lightning Moneyline -130 (Play to -145)
