NHL Odds, Preview, Prediction: Maple Leafs vs Panthers (Thursday, October 19)
Via Andrew Mordzynski/Getty Images. Pictured: Florida Panthers left wing Matthew Tkachuk (19) skates during a game between the Florida Panthers and New Jersey Devils on October 16, 2023 at Prudential Center in the Newark, New Jersey.
Maple Leafs vs. Panthers Odds
| Maple Leafs Odds | -138 |
| Panthers Odds | +115 |
| Over / Under | 6.5 -158o / +128u |
After losing on Monday, the Toronto Maple Leafs head south to take on the Florida Panthers. Toronto finally moved past the first round last season for the first time since 2004, and it’ll look to build off that. Could this year finally be the year for Leafs fans?
It’s the home opener in Sunrise, and the Panthers hope to finish the job from their near-Cinderella story last year. So far, it’s been a rocky start after losing their first two games, but they came out on top against the Devils on Monday by a score of 4-3.
Here’s a look at the odds, as well as my betting prediction and preview for Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Florida Panthers.
Auston Matthews has made it look easy out there. Two hat tricks in as many games? It seems like he just keeps getting better.
Behind him, William Nylander and John Tavares have picked up where they left off by averaging over a point per game, while Mitch Marner is still looking for his first goal of the season.
The majority of Toronto’s production has come from the top. A team that was praised for its depth currently doesn’t have a whole lot of scoring outside of its main guys. The Leafs are an underwhelming 17th in Expected Goals with a 51.11 xGF%, much lower than their typical top spot. Defensively, they haven’t been much better, with a 3.08 xGA/60.
Luckily, their power play has been working out for them. Toronto, who is renowned for its deadly play with the man advantage, is scoring at a 40% clip. The penalty kill hasn’t been that bad either as it has stopped seven out of nine attempts.
As usual, goaltending will always pose questions in “The Six.” Despite being 2-0, Ilya Samsonov’s numbers are downright gaudy, posting an .832 SV% and a -3.0 Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx). Backup Joseph Woll may be a better option when it’s all said and done, but since he played in Monday’s loss, Samsonov likely gets the nod here.
The Panthers definitely have a boatload of talent up front. They have four players with a point per game or more in Matthew Tkachuk, Sam Reinhart, Aleksander Barkov and the surprising Evan Rodrigues. Rodrigues has always been a solid middle-six player, but if he can keep up this pace, it would be a heck of a pickup for Florida from the offseason.
Driving play has never been the issue for Florida — it’s what sets them apart from the rest of the league. So far, the Panthers are 11th with a 54.9 xGF% and have generated a decent amount of high-danger opportunities.
Defensively, they’ve excelled as well. Even though they’re missing Brandon Montour and Aaron Ekblad, they’re still playing to a 2.09 xGA/60.
Special teams haven't been there yet for Florida, however. Its penalty kill was always suspect, given the ups and downs of goalie Sergei Bobrovsky. It’s only succeeding at a 66% rate, and the power play has only converted 15% of the time. I’m not worried about the power play though, as this was a top-10 team in that category last year.
Bobrovsky will likely be in net, and in past game guides, I’ve detailed how up-and-down Bob’s tenure with the Panthers has been, and this year is no exception so far. Currently he’s playing to an .888 SV% and a -1.3 GSAx.
Bet the Florida Panthers at Fliff Social Sportsbook
If you live in Florida and want to bet the Panthers vs. Maple Leafs, try Fliff Social Sportsbook. Fliff is available to Florida residents, unlike traditional sportsbooks. Sign up with Action's Fliff promo code to get 100% first deposit match + $100 in Fliff Cash (equivalent to real money)!
Maple Leafs vs. Panthers
Betting Pick & Prediction
Expect goals in this matchup. Given how poorly the goaltending has been, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the lamp lit up a ton. However, the odds for the over don’t yield the best bang for your buck.
While Bobrovsky hasn’t put Florida in an ideal position to win, the defense has been stellar. Latvian rookie Uvis Balinskis has been a very solid staple in the corps in Montour and Ekblad’s absence. Niko Mikkola has also become a welcoming addition to this squad. It will be interesting to see how they try to shut down the behemoth in Matthews.
If all else fails, let Matthews do his thing because he’ll get his chances regardless. Florida must focus on stopping the depth and peppering shots at Samsonov.
The latter will be important, because Toronto’s defense has been dreadful this season. Given how he’s played like a sieve, there will be ample opportunities for the Cats.
I like the Panthers' odds here, and at +112, there’s a good chance for cashing out. I’m going to back the Panthers to win at home and would take them down to -110.
How would you rate this article?