Maple Leafs vs. Penguins Odds
| Maple Leafs Odds | -110 |
| Penguins Odds | -110 |
| Over / Under | 6.5 +105 / -117 |
The Penguins host the Maple Leafs on Saturday night, so let's get right into the matchup.
After looking at the NHL odds, my Maple Leafs vs. Penguins prediction for the Saturday-night matchup is below.
Toronto Maple Leafs
In nine of 18 contests this season, the new-look Leafs have surrendered four or more goals. They own a 3.44 goals against average, up from a seventh-best mark of 2.68 a season ago.
The Leafs have gone from being a team with an unjustified reputation for below-average defensive play, to a side fully earning that reputation.
In the past 10 games, Toronto has allowed an xGA/60 of 3.32, which is the 12th-worst mark in the league.
Part of Toronto's goal prevention struggles have been due to lesser form from goaltender Ilya Samsonov, who will sit Saturday in this back-to-back spot. Instead, Joseph Woll will get the start.
Woll has clearly been the better of the two options this season. He owns a +3.0 GSAx and a .909 save % in 10 appearances and posted a .932 save % last season.
Auston Matthews, William Nylander, John Tavares and Mitch Marner have all been true to form to start the year as each is averaging well over a point per game.
Nick Robertson has injected life into Toronto's third line, which was a flaw early on this season. Robertson is a talented finisher and works well alongside Max Domi, who always looks to pass first.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Last year's Norris Trophy winner, Erik Karlsson, was arguably somewhat of a weird fit for Pittsburgh. Kris Letang had effectively quarterbacked the Penguins' top power-play unit for ages, which seemed to cut into Karlsson's overall value.
In the early going, the Penguins, as expected, have generated a ton of offensive chances.
Their 3.96 xGF/60 over the past 10 games is the second-highest mark in the NHL. Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin have both displayed elite form thus far and have driven Pittsburgh's solid offensive play.
Pittsburgh is also defending better than we saw throughout much of last season. The main turnaround on that front has been due to their improved bottom six up front.
The Penguins started Alex Nedeljkovic on Friday against Buffalo, which means we should see Tristan Jarry in this spot. Jarry has played to +4.4 GSAx and a .916 save % in 14 appearances this season.
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Maple Leafs vs. Penguins
Betting Pick & Prediction
Both of these teams have numerous offensive superstars in strong form.
The Leafs' defensive play has taken a significant step backward and – more than ever – it seems they are often looking to score their way of trouble.
The Penguins have displayed solid defensive prowess recently and have received surprisingly great goaltending. Even still, they play an up-tempo style and their personnel dictates they should be a middle-of-the-pack team in terms of goal prevention.
The fact that the Penguins have played a few low-scoring contests recently is likely helping to prop Over 6.5 up past plus money. Anything better than -110 is a play for me.
Pick: Over 6.5 +106 (FanDuel) | Play to -110
