Oilers vs. Capitals Odds
| Oilers Odds | -150 |
| Capitals Odds | +125 |
| Over/Under | 6.5 (-110 / -110) |
| Time | 8 p.m. ET |
| TV | SN |
| Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NHL Odds here. | |
With the team's 5-6-2 start to the season and a lengthy list of meaningful players on the IR, the outlook is currently quite bleak for the Washington Capitals, and things will not get any easier Monday night as the Edmonton Oilers head into town.
Edmonton was embarrassed at home Saturday in a 6-2 loss to the Dallas Stars, and the team is now on a two-game skid.
Is this a perfect bounce-back spot for the Oilers?
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Edmonton Oilers Always Have Offense
Relative to other Cup-contending teams, the Oilers' defensive core and goaltending situation again seem to be somewhat flawed in the early going.
Edmonton is again looking to use its incredibly dominant offensive strengths to hide those concerns, and the results have been middling to this point.
The Oilers have allowed 3.50 goals against per game and own the fifth-worst expected goals against rating in the league at 3.73. So, that mark has been far from bad luck.
Even coming from a skeptic, Edmonton's roster should be capable of suppressing chances at a closer to middle-of-the-pack rate, and somewhat of an uptick defensively is likely.
Offensively, the Oilers are firing on all cylinders, as you might expect.
Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl have combined for 48 points in 12 games, and they lead an offense that has scored 3.83 goals for per game in the early going.
Edmonton has played to a xGF% of just 49.9 throughout its opening 12 games.
That mark is far from encouraging, but a breakeven overall run of play goes significantly further for Edmonton, whose spectacular offensive stars are likely to create and finish off plays at a rate that will not effectively quantify in data that is based upon a sample of the entire league.
Jack Campbell has struggled this season, with a -4.4 goals saved above expected rating and an .874 save % throughout eight appearances.
Tonight, Campbell likely will rest in favor of Stuart Skinner, who seems to be quite rightfully overtaking the No. 1 role thus far. Skinner owns a +5.6 goals saved above expected rating with a .944 save %, and my belief is the gap in numbers between these two netminding options is telling a fair story.
Washington Capitals Banged Up
Washington's current lineup offers very little in the way of meaningful offensive talent, and that loss is going to be very hard to overcome on a night when McDavid and Draisaitl come to town.
It seemed Washington's collapse to the Arizona Coyotes – and loss to the Red Wings – were fairly telling about where the team is at right now – even if we pay respect to the fact that it is a very close league and even Arizona will win 25 games.
Washington seemed to play with a reasonable level of intensity in both of those matchups, and the team also appeared to be fairly well organized and structured in both games while receiving steady goaltending performances from Darcy Kuemper.
Yet both of those contests went as losses, as offensively the Capitals managed just two combined goals. And over four games last week, Washington scored just seven goals.
The Capitals currently are skating without a ton of notable offensive talent; Nicklas Backstrom, Connor Brown, Tom Wilson, T.J. Oshie, John Carlson and now Dmitry Orlov are all on injured reserve.
That is a significant amount of scoring talent missing from a single lineup, and the Capitals have not overcome those absences. Which, in a surprising turn of events, leaves Washington's greatest strength in goal with the tandem of Darcy Kuemper and Charlie Lindgren.
Kuemper has stopped .919% shots faced and owns a +5.5 goals saved above expected rating through 10 games played.
It's entirely possible backup Charlie Lindgren will start Monday, and that shouldn't warrant any change handicapping-wise since he has been fantastic in three appearances with a +2.7 goals saved above expected rating and .919 save %.
Oilers vs. Capitals Pick
It's a reasonable expectation for the Oilers to manage three or more goals in this spot since you are simply not going to shut down Edmonton's high-powered offense too many nights, even with solid defending.
When that happens it likely should mean a good result for Edmonton, as Washington are scuffling badly offensively and not showing signs of a meaningful uptick anytime soon.
Especially if Edmonton ends up starting Skinner, who has been the far better of its two goaltending options, Washington's heavily depleted roster likely will not manage much offense.
This is a great spot for the Oilers to bounce back, and if Edmonton starts Skinner, I would play Edmonton to win in regulation down to -105, though as of now +110 or better is widely available.
Should Edmonton start Campbell, I still see value in this spot but would play a 3-way win down to only +105.
Pick: Edmonton Oilers 3-Way Moneyline +110 (Play 3-Way to -105 with Skinner)
