Oilers vs. Golden Knights Odds
| Oilers Odds | -155 |
| Golden Knights Odds | +130 |
| Over / Under | 6 -120o / +100u |
This game has rightfully become one of the most anticipated regular season matchups in recent memory. An Oilers win would tie the NHL record for most consecutive victories at 16, and extract a measure of revenge for last season's playoff exit. The game also holds significant value in the Pacific division standings, as the Oilers can pull within three points of the Golden Knights with a regulation win.
The Golden Knights will receive a significant boost down the middle, as William Karlsson is set to return after a month-long absence.
Despite the defending champions owning an 18-5-4 record on home ice this season, bettors are hammering away on the Oilers, who have moved from -130 favorites at open all the way to -155.
Let's dive into this marquee matchup in our Oilers vs. Golden Knights preview and prediction.
Edmonton Oilers
The Oilers have essentially ended the chances of a nightmare playoff miss with their 16-game winning streak, but this matchup certainly makes the case there is reason to push for more in the standings. As of now, the Oilers would line up with the Golden Knights in round one of the playoffs.
In many NHL seasons, the reward for finishing first in a conference or division can be nominal. For the top three teams in the Pacific this year, it will be significant, as the Golden Knights, Canucks and Oilers all deserve to be viewed as Cup contenders. The winner of the race could get a very soft first round matchup, as only the Kings look to be much of a formidable opponent.
That shows oddsmakers' true opinion of the Oilers, as it is still more likely they get Vegas in round one than it is that they win the division, yet oddsmakers have Edmonton priced as low at +650 to win it all.
Liability likely plays some factor in that, but the other important note is that the Oilers' underlying process has been excellent all season long. That has continued in the last 10 games, in which they own a league-leading 59.75% expected goals rating. Over the entirety of the season, their 57.98% xGF ranks first as well.
What public expected goals data does not entirely encapsulate is the play prior to any shot. Not all shots from the same location are created equal. The reason that's relevant when you are talking about the Oilers it is visible that the skill inside their top-six allows them to create more effective pre-shot movement than average NHL sides — and even still they have scored 12.71 goals less than expected.
The Oilers split Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl up again at practice yesterday — after a brief stint with them on the first line together — going back to a first line of Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, McDavid and Zach Hyman and a second line of Evander Kane, Draisaitl and Warren Foegele.
Both of those units have found lots of success this season and offer the opposition a tougher matchup than when Draisaitl and McDavid are together at even strength.
Stuart Skinner should get this important start between the pipes coming out of the All-Star break. Skinner owns a +2.5 GSAx and .910 save % across 34 appearances this season.
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Vegas Golden Knights
Accurately assessing what the 2023-24 Golden Knights are is not an easy task, as they have played the last stretch without a number of key pieces. Vegas has spent a lot of time without its top two centers in Jack Eichel and William Karlsson, as well as top defender Shea Theodore, goaltender Adin Hill and a wealth of other NHL mainstays.
It's easy to say that we haven't seen Vegas' best play for a little while here, but injuries are the main reason why. The Golden Knights have played to an xGF% of only 48.14 over the last 10 games, but do get a big boost down the middle with Karlsson's return here. Karlsson is an excellent two-way force, and the value of his absence was exacerbated because of Eichel being sidelined at the same time.
Hill is likely to get the start tonight. He has continued to make the case that his excellent Cup run was no fluke, with a +16.4 GSAx and .936 save % in 17 games played this season.
Oilers vs. Golden Knights
Betting Pick & Prediction
This is deservedly one of the most anticipated games of the season, and the Oilers have a chance to make another statement with a win here to tie the NHL record. Based on how well they have been playing, they were the side holding value at the opening price of -130. At -155 or worse though, the market has corrected and Edmonton has become a pass.
Keep in mind how hard it is for a team to entirely control its result in any NHL game, and the Oilers are taking on one of the best goalies in the league here.
My expectation is that we see a fast-paced game in which the Oilers get to their season average of high-danger chances, particularly as this spot should call for leaning on their top two forward lines more than we saw throughout the last month of play.
If the Oilers do suffer a loss tonight, I believe it is far more likely it will be because of some opportunistic scoring from the Golden Knights, and not because their offense hit a wall. McDavid, Nugent-Hopkins and Hyman have been arguably the best line in the league, and I expect them to be ready to go here. Nugent-Hopkins is priced at +108 on FanDuel to record over 2.5 shots, which is my favorite bet from this matchup.
Draisaitl has found great results alongside Foegele at even strength, and enters this matchup in strong form with six points in the last two games. He was excellent versus Vegas last playoffs, and has a knack for getting up for the big moments. Backing Draisaitl to record a goal at +130 is my favorite prop of his, but over 1.5 points and over 2.5 shots on goal are both solid options as well.
Picks: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins Over 2.5 Shots on Goal (+108 via FanDuel, Play to -102) | Leon Draisaitl Anytime Goalscorer (+130 via FanDuel, Play to +125)
