Oilers vs. Rangers Odds
| Oilers Odds | -130 |
| Rangers Odds | +115 |
| Over/Under | 6.5 |
| Time | 7 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN+ |
| Odds via DraftKings, updated Monday at 3 p.m. ET. Get up-to-the-minute NHL odds here. | |
A terrible 2-7-2 record over the last month has the Oilers in the last wild-card spot by only a single point. After a very promising start to the season, consistent flaws over the Connor McDavid era continue to show through.
New York will enter this one riding high with back-to-back wins over the Lightning, but it will need to dig deep to overcome a tough scheduling spot, without the services of Artemi Panarin and Igor Shesterkin.
Oilers Hope For Better January
A weekend back-to-back in New Jersey and Long Island put a punctuation mark on the Oilers' awful run of play, and although claiming two points seems reasonable, the nature of the collapses in the contests certainly was concerning.
The Oilers gave up a goal with under a minute left to the Devils before playing one of the sloppiest 3-on-3 sessions I've witnessed. They followed it up by giving up another third-period lead the next day, being outshot 14-2.
However, the Oilers have still played to a 50.82 xGF% over this rough month, and when you hold the lethal duo of McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, who have regularly curved xG data in their careers, that should allow you a reasonable chance to win.
But the nature of the full-blown defensive collapses has been evident, and as you may expect from the Oilers' net-minding trio, they have received some below-average play.
The Oilers have gone 0-2-2 in one-goal games over that span, and it is fair to say the roster could trend upwards as it is icing closer to its best personnel here against New York.
Edmonton will likely go with Mikko Koskinen with Mike Smith back on the IR, although it would not be shocking to see Stuart Skinner.
Koskinen holds a -4.6 goals saved above expected rating (GSAx) with a .902 save % throughout 19 games played this season.
Rangers Will See Dropoff in Net
Mike Zibanejad loves to score in bunches, and he broke through with a massive hat trick Friday. It came at a perfect time with Artemi Panarin a late scratch against the cup champs.
New York did a good job of limiting Tampa's high-quality looks skating with the lead the entire game after a good start, and in turn it posted a second straight win over the Bolts. The Rangers power play stayed was searing hot, and Igor Shesterkin was as advertised.
However, the team has still not dominated throughout 5-on-5 play of late by any means, and it holds just a 45.07 xGF% throughout its last 11 contests.
Even though New York has posted two great wins over the Bolts, it's easy for me to see how Edmonton could come out desperate and control more of the play, as Artemi Panarin and Ryan Lindgren are notable losses.
With Igor Shesterkin starting Sunday, we will see Alexandar Georgiev draw the start here, which is certainly a notable drop-off.
Georgiev has stopped .899% of shots faced, with a -5.4 goals saved above expected rating throughout 13 games played this season.
Oilers vs. Rangers Pick
The Rangers feature a more balanced composition, and at full-health with Igor Shesterkin starting and fully rested, they would hold value at -125 over a flawed Oilers team.
However, with Georgiev drawing this start and some notable losses for the Rangers including Panarin, this seems like a good spot for the Oilers to snap their skid. Although New York is doing a lot of things well, it is still not dominating gameplay at even strength as much as you would expect.
Edmonton is barely locking down a wild-card spot in the West at this point, and although I don't like to get to tied up in "desperation" angles, this is simply a gigantic game for the Oilers. They are lucking into a favorable situation here.
There's undoubtedly still enough talent up front to post some strong offensive numbers, and I think the Oilers can help to insulate their shaky defensive core in this spot, playing more than usual in the offensive zone.
DraftKings has opened the Oilers at +105, and I see some value backing them at that current number. Play Edmonton down to -115, but back the Oilers early if possible.
Pick: Edmonton Oilers +105 | Play to -115
