Panthers vs. Islanders Odds
| Panthers Odds | -130 |
| Islanders Odds | +110 |
| Over / Under | 6 -110o / -110u |
Here's everything you need to know about Panthers vs. Islanders on Saturday, Jan. 27 – our expert NHL prediction and pick.
The Florida Panthers and New York Islanders have been trending in opposite directions of late. The Panthers have hit their stride since the New Year, suffering just two regulation losses in January. Meanwhile, the Islanders have won only three games since the turn of the calendar and have entered desperation mode. They are now banking on a coaching change to turn their season around.
On Saturday night, the Islanders and Panthers face off for the second time this season in what will be the final tilt before the All-Star break for both teams.
Let's dig into the NHL odds and make a Panthers vs. Islanders prediction and pick.
Florida Panthers
The Panthers’ Stanley Cup hangover has worn off. After stumbling out of the gate to a 5-4-1 start, Florida has recovered in a big way.
Florida is an impressive 24-10-3 in the 37 games since. The Panthers are 7-2-2 in the month of January and have been one one of the league’s hottest and most complete teams for several months now.
The underlying numbers only help their case. The Panthers boast a dominant 55.65 xGF% at 5-on-5, third best in the NHL. Their 2.85 xGF/60 ranks fourth in the NHL and their 2.27 xGA/60 is the league’s second-best mark.
On an individual level, the Panthers’ recent run can be attributed largely to Matthew Tkachuk finally heating up. The 26-year-old playoff hero has posted a whopping 21 points in 11 games since the New Year. Not to mention, running mate Sam Reinhart has been doing it for the Panthers all year, sitting second in the NHL with a career-high 35 goals.
In between the pipes, Sergei Bobrovsky’s continued resurgence has been an overlooked catalyst behind Florida’s success. The Russian netminder has proven his playoff run was no fluke, as his 2.53 GAA is his lowest mark since the 2017-18 season.
Statistically, backup goaltender Anthony Stolarz, who should get the nod Saturday, has been even better. Stolarz owns a 2.12 GAA and .917 SV%. His 5.31 GSAx is even better than Bobrovsky’s mark of 5.11 despite playing 21 fewer games.
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New York Islanders
The Islanders made perhaps the wildest move of the NHL season last Saturday, firing coach Lane Lambert and replacing him with Patrick Roy.
It was no surprise to see New York move on from Lambert. The Islanders' patented defensive-zone play had fallen off a cliff, as they ranked 27th in xGA/60 and 30th in HDCA/60 in 45 games under Lambert.
The surprise came from Lou Lamoriello's decision to pivot to an outside replacement, already a rarity in the NHL, nonetheless the enigmatic Roy. Thus far, the results have been mixed, as New York is 1-2 since the change.
In Roy's first two games, a 3-2 overtime victory over the Dallas Stars and a 3-2 loss to the Vegas Golden Knights, the Islanders executed the structured, disciplined style the Hall of Fame goaltender is looking to employ. But in Roy’s third game behind the bench, a 4-3 loss to the Montreal Canadiens, New York was sloppy, falling behind 3-0 in the first period.
Interestingly, the underlying numbers, albeit through an extremely small sample size, suggest the Islanders are already much improved. New York owns a superb 57.1 xGF% at 5-on-5 under Roy and its xGF/60 is 3.06. The defensive play has improved, too. The Islanders' xGA/60 is only 2.24 and their HDCA/60 is 8.68, down from 12.73 under Lambert.
The only problem is Roy won't be afforded much of a grace period. If the Islanders are serious about sneaking into the playoffs, they need wins, and they need them quickly.
Panthers vs. Islanders
Betting Pick & Prediction
On paper, this is a mismatch. Florida is playing as well as anyone right now while the Islanders are still trying to find their footing under Roy. But the wildcard element that a new coach provides is giving me pause on picking a side in this one.
Instead, I'm looking at the total.
The Islanders should respond to their fiery bench boss and rebound from Thursday's messy showing with a more structured game. I expect them to look more like the team from Roy's first two games, in which the under hit both times.
The Panthers, who already excel defensively, are in the second game of a back-to-back, where they thrive in the defensive zone in particular. In this spot, the Panthers' under is 3-0, and they have yet to allow more than one goal in any game. Clearly veteran coach Paul Maurice is preaching a responsible, conservative approach on tired legs.
With both teams looking to play a low-event game and possessing strong goaltending, I'm playing the under in this one. We're getting solid value at Under 6 on DraftKings at -110.
Pick: Under 6 (-110 at DraftKings | Play to -130)
