Panthers vs. Oilers Odds
| Panthers Odds | -115 |
| Oilers Odds | -105 |
| Over/Under | 6.5 (-120 / +100) |
| Time | 9:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | SN1 |
| Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute NHL Odds here. | |
In Monday's nightcap, the Pacific Division's Edmonton Oilers host the Atlantic Division's Florida Panthers.
This matchup is the second meeting between these two clubs this season; the Oilers won the first game, 4-2, on Nov. 12.
Will Edmonton take care of business once again? Or can the Panthers grab a victory as a short road favorite?
Leaky Net for Florida Panthers
The Florida Panthers enter this contest amid a flurry of high-scoring contests. There have been seven or more total goals scored in each of their last six games, a trend that should continue in this matchup with goaltender Sergei Bobrovsky slated to take the crease for Florida.
It has been a tough start to the campaign for the Panthers netminder, who is just 4-5-1 with a .888 SV% and 3.62 GAA. Bobrovsky enters this game in particularly poor form, allowing four or more goals in three of his last four starts.
Across that stretch, Bobrovsky possesses a troubling .862 SV% and 4.90 GAA. There were seven or more total goals scored in all four of those games.
Based on his metrics, there should not be a ton of optimism for positive regression since he ranks just 25th among starting goaltenders in goals saved above expected per 60 minutes (GSAx/60) at 5v5. This poor start to the year is likely to continue against Edmonton, a team Bobrovsky has struggled against over the last couple of seasons.
Through his last six starts against the Oilers, he is 3-3 with a .886 SV% and 3.41 GAA. There were seven or more total goals scored in four of those six outings.
The good news for Bobrovsky is that the Panthers should give him plenty of goal support. At 5v5 this season, Florida ranks second in the league in expected goals for per 60 minutes (xGF/60).
Campbell's Rough Start With Edmonton Oilers
The Edmonton Oilers have also been involved in some high-scoring contests recently with seven or more total goals scored in three of their last four games. This trend should continue considering that goaltender Jack Campbell is slated to get the start between the pipes for the Oilers.
Campbell has had a disastrous start to his tenure in Edmonton since signing as a free agent over the offseason. Through 12 starts this year, he possesses a .875 SV% and 4.04 GAA.
There have now been seven or more total goals scored in six of his last eight starts. In terms of metrics, Campbell is the worst starting goaltender in hockey, ranking dead-last in GSAx/60 at 5v5.
This poor stretch of goaltending is likely to continue against Florida, a team he has struggled with throughout his career. Across three career starts against the Panthers, Campbell is 0-1-2 with a .874 SV% and 4.52 GAA.
There were seven or more total goals scored in two of those three outings. Now, to be a little fairer to Campbell, the defense in front of him is also terrible.
At 5v5, the Oilers rank fourth-last in the league in expected goals against per 60 minutes (xGA/60). Because of all the money allotted to the talented forward group, this team was unable to address the problem at the blue line over the offseason other than attempting to give them a strong goaltender by signing Campbell – which has also failed to work.
However, Campbell could get some goal support as Edmonton is primed for some positive regression offensively. At 5v5, they rank just 27th in the league in GF/60 but seventh in xGF/60.
Panthers vs. Oilers Pick
Although there were only six goals scored in the first matchup between these two clubs this season, we should expect a higher-scoring affair this time around. The Panthers have one of the deepest offenses in the league while the Oilers possess perhaps the two best offensive players in the world among an offense due for positive regression.
Both these teams thrive in a fast-paced setting and typically fly up and down the ice as quickly as possible to generate breakaways and odd-man rushes. Each of these clubs attempts to turn games into track races, which is a recipe for the over to hit when they play each other.
Mix in the fact that Bobrovsky and Campbell are both struggling and the Oilers have one of the worst defenses in the league, seven goals should not be difficult to come by. The line has been bouncing between 6.5 and 7 since it opened, but I would lay more juice at 6.5 rather than taking the over at 7.
Pick: Over 6.5 (-120) | Play up to (-130)
