NHL Odds, Preview, Prediction: Panthers vs Rangers Game 5 (Thursday, May 30)

Thursday, May 30

8 p.m. ET

ESPN & ESPN+

Panthers Odds	-120
Rangers Odds	+100
Over / Under	5.5 +110 / -134

Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NHL odds here.

Here's everything you need to know about the Panthers vs. Rangers odds for Game 5 on Thursday, May 30 – our expert NHL prediction and pick.

It’s time for Game 5 of the Eastern Conference Finals between the Florida Panthers and the New York Rangers. With the series tied at 2-2, Game 5 tonight in New York promises to be a critical matchup as both teams strive to gain an edge.

Game 5 in an NHL playoff series holds significant importance. Historically, the team that wins Game 5 goes on to win the series approximately 72.8% of the time since 1942. Let’s dive into this series-defining game with my Florida vs. New York pick and prediction.

Florida Panthers

The Panthers have been an offensive juggernaut all season. Ranking second in Corsi % during the regular season, they have maintained their aggressive puck control into the playoffs, leading with the highest Corsi % among the remaining teams. Their xG % (expected goals percentage) also placed them second in the regular season, and they now sit atop the playoff leaderboard.

The Panthers' ability to generate scoring opportunities is further underscored by their second place in Expected Goals For (xGF) during the regular season and third in the playoffs. They consistently create high-danger chances, ranking second during the regular season and third in the playoffs. Their power play has been potent, ranking seventh in the regular season and second in the playoffs.

Defensively, the Panthers have been robust. They ranked fifth in Expected Goals Against (xGA) during the regular season, showing their ability to limit quality scoring opportunities for opponents. In the playoffs, they have elevated their game, ranking first in xGA.

High-danger chances against have also been minimized, with the Panthers ranking 11th in the regular season and improving to first in the playoffs.

Florida allowed the 16th most penalty-kill goals in the regular season but has become the stingiest team in the playoffs, allowing the fewest.

Sergei Bobrovsky has been a key figure in their defensive strength, ranking 11th in save percentage and seventh in GAA during the regular season. In the playoffs, Bobrovsky ranks fourth among starting goalies in GAA and sixth in goals saved above expected, showcasing his elite form.

New York Rangers

The Rangers have had an intriguing journey this season. Despite being 12th in Corsi % during the regular season, they have struggled to maintain possession in the playoffs, dropping to 14th among the 16 playoff teams.

New York continues to defy odds, defeating teams with superior advanced metrics at even strength throughout the playoffs thus far. This is due to their power play remaining a significant strength for them, ranking fourth in the regular season and third in the playoffs.

The Rangers’ xG % was also middling at 12th in the regular season with a slight improvement to ninth in the playoffs. New York’s Expected Goals For (xGF) ranked 12th in the regular season and has fallen to the last place among the remaining playoff teams. High-danger chances have been a particular area of concern with the Rangers ranked 15th in the regular season and last in the playoffs.

Defensively, New York has been solid if unspectacular. They ranked 13th in xGA during the regular season and have improved to third in the playoffs, showing resilience under pressure. High-danger chances against have been a concern with the Rangers 10th in the regular season and improving to second in the playoffs. The penalty kill has been a mixed bag; they allowed the second-fewest penalty kill goals in the regular season but have struggled in the playoffs, allowing the most among the remaining teams.

Igor Shesterkin, their star goalie, has been exceptional, ranking 16th in save percentage and GAA during the regular season but rising to sixth and second, respectively, in the playoffs. His performance has been crucial in allowing the Rangers to defeat the advanced metrics’ darling in the Carolina Hurricanes and currently sitting with the second ranked advanced metric team in the Panthers. If New York is to win Game 5 tonight, Shesterkin will be a massive reason why.

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Panthers vs. Rangers

Betting Pick & Prediction

Given the data and performance trends, the Florida Panthers moneyline at -120 odds appears to be the best bet. Despite playing in New York, the Panthers have shown superior offensive and defensive metrics throughout the season and in the playoffs. Their ability to generate high-danger chances and limit their opponents, combined with Bobrovsky’s elite goaltending, gives them a significant edge.

The Panthers' balanced play and slightly improved discipline in the playoffs make them a formidable opponent for the Rangers, who have struggled with consistency and defensive lapses.

The Panthers will likely dominate puck possession and keep being aggressive in the offensive zone, which will generate plenty of opportunities for them to gain an early lead and maintain it throughout the game.

In conclusion, while the Rangers have defied expectations and have the talent to compete, the Panthers’ statistical dominance and overall team performance make them the more reliable bet for Game 5. Bettors should consider the Panthers moneyline at -120, given the team's comprehensive edge in key metrics and playoff performance.

Pick: Panthers moneyline (-120 at FanDuel)

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