Penguins vs. Maple Leafs Odds
| Penguins Odds | +112 |
| Maple Leafs Odds | -134 |
| Over / Under | 6.5 -138 / +112 |
Kyle Dubas will make his return to Toronto on Saturday night, which adds a ton of hype to this already exciting Penguins vs. Maple Leafs matchup tonight.
Dubas' Penguins have struggled to a mark of 13-12-3, and they rank 19th in the league with a points % of .518.
The Leafs, meanwhile, have quietly cleaned up a ton of points, and they sit sixth in the league on points % entering this matchup.
Toronto might not be as strong as its record currently suggests, however, which we will break down as I detail my best picks for this matchup.
Here's a look at the Penguins vs. Maple Leafs odds and prediction, as well as those two betting angles.
Pittsburgh Penguins
The Penguins are likely a hair better than their record suggests. They own a 12th-best goal differential and hold a respectable underlying profile.
They have scored -7.31 goals above expected at five-on-five this season, and they own the ninth-best expected goals rating of 51.95%.
Ryan Graves was brought in to shore up what was a shaky blue line last season, but he's put forth a highly disappointing start to the campaign.
The play of Erik Karlsson is drawing a lot of negative headlines entering this game; his mistakes are typically of the highly noticeable variety. None of the underlying results agree that Karlsson is hurting the Penguins, however, and that simply seems to be an easy narrative to throw out there for a team that is underperforming.
Especially as the Penguins have allowed only 2.61 goals against per game, which is the fifth-best mark in the league.
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That strength would likely be more acknowledged if the Penguins had a few more wins, and the greatest reason that they don't has been due to their shockingly horrific play with the man advantage.
The Penguins have succeeded just 13.4% of the time on the power play. They snapped a streak of 37 straight failed opportunities Tuesday against Arizona, and they added another in the third period. They then put up two important power-play markers in Thursday's win in Montreal.
Suddenly a power-play unit that everybody expected to be good has come alive, albeit in a tiny sample. It will be interesting to see if that trend continues since it would greatly boost the upside of a Penguins team that has competed respectably elsewhere.
Tristan Jarry will start in goal for the Penguins. He owns a +10.0 GSAx and .918 save % across 21 starts this season.
Toronto Maple Leafs
The Leafs play has not been as impressive as most other teams surrounding them in the standings. They own a goal differential of +9, and they have required overtime in 13 of their 27 games.
They now limp into this contest with a dinged-up blue line, and they are set to start third-string goaltender Martin Jones.
Across the last 10 games, they have allowed 3.30 xGA/60, the second-worst mark in the league. That flaw is likely to be more noticeable as we see a larger sample of hockey without top goaltender Joseph Woll, who had been excellent before injury.
Timothy Liljegren is set to return to the lineup tonight after a 17-game absence, which certainly does boost the upside of a thin defensive core. He will likely skate on the top pairing alongside Morgan Rielly, and he should be rostered in deep fantasy leagues.
Prior to the Leafs' disappointing performance versus the Blue Jackets on Thursday, it was reported that the team was fighting an illness. That seems to be extending into tonight's matchup, and it has both Matthew Knies and T.J. Brodie listed as questionable.
Jones owns a +0.9 GSAx and .902 save % across his two NHL appearances this season, and he has an .870 save % in five appearances in the AHL.
Penguins vs. Maple Leafs
Betting Pick & Prediction
Both of these teams have played in a higher-than-average number of overtime and single-goal games recently, and the makings are there for that trend to continue in this matchup.
This game features a ton of hype, and we should feel confident both teams bring highly competitive efforts. Typically, that does lend itself to closer scorelines.
Toronto's defensive play has not been entirely convincing of late, and that issue is compounded with Woll sidelined. For the time being, it is not as strong a team as its record indicates and is a good fade candidate. We can rate these teams a hair closer than the Pens' current number suggests.
The Penguins are worthy of a bet down to +110 in this game, which I view as closer to a coin flip due to the Leafs' current goaltending situation. Betting this game to go to overtime at +380 is also worthy of a smaller wager.
Picks: Regulation Tie (+380 at FanDuel) | Penguins (+123 at BetRivers, Play to +110)
