Penguins vs. Wild Odds
| Penguins Odds | -130 |
| Wild Odds | +105 |
| Over / Under | 6 -110 / -112 |
Here's everything you need to know about the Pittsburgh Penguins vs. Minnesota Wild on Friday, February 9 – our expert NHL prediction and pick.
Marc-Andre Fleury will likely make his final start against the Penguins of his career, as he has been confirmed as the Wild's starting goaltender. Despite a relatively awful run of play, the Wild are still just five points back in a soft wild-card race, so this game does have some significance away from the Fleury storyline.
Pittsburgh has generated 32.6 shots per 60 in its last 10 games, and offers a stiff Fleury a good chance to steal the show with a vintage performance. It has played to a record of 4-3-3 over the past 10, and is 10-9-4 on the road.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Pittsburgh has played many of the NHL's most low-event teams and a number of elite defensive sides over its last 10 games. Despite generating 3.52 xGF/60 in those 10 matchups, they have scored four goals only a single time (January 8th versus the Flyers).
The Hurricanes, Knights, Panthers, Jets and Canucks make up five of those games, and can all be classified as elite defensive teams. Montreal, Arizona, Seattle and even this year's version of the Sabres can all be classified as teams with a greater strength at preventing offense, though they are not very compelling sides overall.
So while the Penguins' recent underlying results offensively are still encouraging and suggest positive regression, the schedule has also played a factor.
Evgeni Malkin missed practice yesterday, but was a participant in an optional skate this morning. As Malkin is likely to participate in this contest, the Penguins should be without only Noel Acciari (concussion) and Matt Nieto.
Pittsburgh has continued to put up surprisingly strong defensive play relative to what many would have expected from this roster. It has allowed only 2.83 xGA/60 over the last 10 games and owns a fifth-best goals against average on the season at 2.64.
Part of the Pens' elite goal suppression has been due to the high quality play of not only starter starter Tristan Jarry in goal, but backup Alex Nedeljkovic as well.
Nedeljkovic has been confirmed as tonight's starter. In 16 appearances this season he has played to a +4.6 GSAx and .918 save %, the latter of which ranks seventh in the NHL.
Goaltending is the hardest position in sports to handicap, but it is doubtful Nedeljkovic plays at this kind of pace moving forward after posting an .895 save % last season. The logical expectation would be that he trends to somewhere between his incredible 2023-24 and dreadful 2022-23 numbers from here on out.
Minnesota Wild
It took some years for the Wild to shed their reputation of playing defense first, low-event hockey, which had started way back under coach Jacques Lemaire. They are back to being a relatively stale offensive side this season, though, with a goals for per game average of just 2.96.
Part of that has come down to injuries all over the lineup, although it is clear that this year's iteration of the Wild does not have the offensive pop of some of the years previous, especially considering the lack of offensive threats down the lineup card.
Still, based off of priors we have likely seen the low end of the Wild in terms of offensive upside. Kirill Kaprizov has put up barely past a point-per-game, and Matt Boldy has only 33 points in 43 games thus far. With Marco Rossi looking like a legitimate top-six talent, I do feel there is room for growth in terms of production from the top of the lineup.
Fleury has struggled throughout in his 23 appearances this season, with a -5.7 GSAx and .897 save % entering this matchup.
Penguins vs. Wild
Betting Pick & Prediction
The current prices on sides in this game are accurate, and I do not have enough conviction to bet either side. With a goaltending matchup of Nedeljkovic versus Fleury confirmed, I do believe a total of 6 with only slight juice to the over is a little off.
Fleury has been a well below-average goaltender this season, and I do believe that is simply what he is at this stage of his career. Nedeljkovic has been surprisingly good in a small sample. It's still unlikely he will be this strong over a larger sample of work though, and we are getting the right number to bet on a drop-off here.
The more important factor in the total is that both of these teams are trending lower than we should expect in terms of recent offensive production. Pittsburgh is generating offensive chances at an elite level recently, yet has only scored more than three goals in a game once in the last eight games. That run has also included matchups versus a ton of noted low-event teams.
Not to say the Wild are a high-event team either, but this is the worst run of form of offensive form we will likely see the rest of the way from their roster if healthy. They can create some offense at home here versus Nedeljkovic.
The recent trends in terms of these sides' lower totals is being more than reflected with a total of six priced evenly considering this goaltending matchup, and I believe a bet on the over up to -115 presents value.
Pick: Over 6 -108 (DraftKings) | Play to -115
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