Rangers vs. Flyers Odds
| Rangers Odds | -135 |
| Flyers Odds | +115 |
| Over / Under | 6 -110 / -110 |
Here's everything you need to know about the New York Rangers vs. Philadelphia Flyers on Saturday, February 24 – our expert NHL prediction and pick.
The Rangers will look to make it 10 straight wins Saturday in an exciting divisional showdown with the Flyers. A price of -135 might look a little short for a team on a nine-game winning streak, but the Flyers have offered some excellent play of their own since the break with a 5-1-1 run of play.
St. Louis Blues
The Rangers have continuously found regular-season success over the last handful of seasons despite a less-than-convincing game at even strength. At some point, you can't say a team is lucky when it is rattling off 100-point campaigns yearly, and it has been proven at this point that New York can win games while owning far less of the play than most elite sides.
Their process throughout their nine-game winning streak has not been overly convincing by any means. They have owned just a 46.25% expected goal rating at even strength, and have leaned on an astronomical PDO of 108.73 to help cover up their modest control of the overall play.
Igor Shesterkin is one of the best goaltenders in the league when true to form, and he has been stellar of late, including a tremendous 39-save performance Thursday versus the Devils. The Rangers also own an elite powerplay and above-average finishing ability.
Even still, a PDO of 108.3 is entirely unsustainable. Eventually, this kind of process tends to get found out, as we see time and time again, and often leads to teams being overvalued in the betting market.
Looking away from the data, the Rangers do still hold some flaws in the lineup which are helping to cause the lesser run of play. Their top-six has some quality offensive skillsets, to be sure, but Mika Zibanejad, Chris Kreider and Jimmy Vesey is not a top unit which will tilt the ice versus the East's best teams.
Peter Laviolette has been relatively unpredictable with his goaltending decisions and has not announced a starter for this matchup. The Rangers play tomorrow night in Columbus, though, and that would be the more natural game to hand to backup Jonathan Quick. Keep your eyes out for confirmation, but we should expect Shesterkin to go Saturday.
Detroit Red Wings
The Flyers continue to grind their way toward a surprising playoff berth with their detailed defensive game. It looked like they were finally coming down to earth heading into the All-Star break, but they have responded with five regulation wins in in seven matchups. They own a 52.5% expected goal share in those games and have played to an actual goal share of 56%.
The point I'll continue to make regarding the Flyers and the sustainability of their success is that not only does John Tortorella clearly have his team playing the right way as a unit, but he has far more talent to work with than most people are crediting.
Sean Couturier is back to his former self again as he now enjoys a healthier campaign, and that likely would have occurred no matter the circumstances. Tortorella has clearly helped get the most out of Travis Konecny and in particular Owen Tippett, who are legitimate top-line talents at this point. Morgan Frost and Joel Farabee isn't a bad pair to help round out the top-six, either.
The Flyers own a 86.5% success rate on the penalty kill, and will need to lean on that strength here versus a red-hot Rangers man advantage.
Samuel Ersson is likely to start in goal. He has played to a +3.9 GSAx and .900 save % across 31 appearances.
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Blues vs. Red Wings
Betting Pick & Prediction
It always feels like teams are doing more right than they actually are when they are on the right side of short-term variance, which is a point we see constantly in the NHL. The Rangers hold better-than-average goaltending, and an above-average ability to force goaltenders into tough saves with strong puck movement.
Even with those factors in mind, the Rangers are due to see their results tail off in the near future. Over their nine-game winning streak they have owned less of the overall chances, and that has not been versus a notably tough schedule by any means.
The Flyers, meanwhile, have come out of the break playing at a really high level themselves, and should be able to own more of the play at even strength in this matchup. If they can keep the Rangers' dominant powerplay in check, I think they have a great chance as underdogs in this matchup. The moneyline of +115 is a good price to target the Flyers to win.
I'm also going to be on Zibanejad to record over 2.5 shots on goal at anything better than -110. There's a number of factors which make me believe Zibanejad's hot streak, where he has put up 18 shots in four games, is sustainable.
He had been trending far lower than what we have typically seen in terms of shots on goal this season, in large due to how badly the fit was at even strength with Blake Wheeler.
Now he clearly has some confidence back playing on a line which is owning more of the play at even strength. He has also dominated the Flyers historically, if you are the type of bettor who values that.
Pick: Philadelphia Flyers ML (+115 at bet365; Play to +110) | Mika Zibanejad Over 2.5 Shots on Goal (+100 at bet365 & DraftKings; Play to -110
