Red Wings vs. Panthers Odds
| Red Wings Odds | +168 |
| Panthers Odds | -205 |
| Over / Under | 6.5 -114 / -108 |
Here's everything you need to know about the Detroit Red Wings vs. Florida Panthers on Wednesday, Jan. 17 – our expert NHL prediction and pick.
The Panthers will look to respond from a shocking collapse Monday versus the Ducks, and they will be forced to do so without Captain Aleksander Barkov, who has emerged as the Selke betting favorite in most midseason polls and will be sidelined due to a lower-body injury.
The Red Wings have bounced back from a treacherous stretch of play with a 5-0-1 record to start the new year, which includes four wins over teams currently in playoff positioning.
Detroit Red Wings
The Red Wings hope to find some consistency out of their current stretch of strong results. They had a tremendous start to the campaign and owned a significant lead on a playoff spot at the Thanksgiving benchmark, prior to a dreadful run of play starting just after that.
Power-rating the Red Wings is somewhat more difficult than it is for most NHL teams. Their control of the overall play at even-strength is quite modest, but some avenues are there for them to outperform those results.
They were clearly never as good as they were early on when they were finishing chances at an unsustainable rate, but they do possess more scoring talent down the roster than an average side.
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They will hope that point holds true in tonight's matchup, as Patrick Kane will be sidelined due to a lower-body injury. Daniel Sprong has been true to form this season, again producing points at an elite level, albeit in a much smaller role. He has put up 3.04 points per 60 minutes this season, and will be an interesting player to watch if given a second-line role in tonight's game.
Alex Lyon's brilliant play has been a huge part of Detroit's recent turnaround, and the question of how truly good he is will be a massive story surrounding the Wings down the stretch. He now owns a +7.1 GSAx and .922 save % across 14 appearances. He also put up +7.5 GSAx with the Panthers last year, including an incredible run down the stretch which allowed the Panthers to sneak into the postseason.
Confirmed as the starter, Lyon will have the opportunity to best his former side.
Florida Panthers
The Panthers continue to offer some of the more well-rounded play of any team in the league this season.
They rank seventh in the league in goal differential, despite shooting at a seventh-lowest clip of only 9.19%. Considering the shooting talent of their top two offensive units, expect their offense to continue stabilizing down the stretch.
Over the last 10 games, the Panthers have played to a 60.16% expected-goal differential, and have generated 3.86 xGF/60.
Barkov's absence will leave a significant hole on their top even-strength unit, which has been outright dominant in tough minutes. In 344.8 minutes of play at even strength, Barkov, Sam Reinhart, and Evan Rodrigues have combined to play to a 62.6% expected-goal rating, and even own a higher percentage of the actual goal than that.
Anton Lundell will be given a huge opportunity to get his season moving in the right direction tonight, as he is set to center the top line. Lundell has had a surprisingly poor campaign, with only 13 points in 39 games. His lack of production would be fine if his defensive upside was at the level we have to come to expect, but that has not been the case.
Sergei Bobrovsky has been confirmed as the Panthers starter. He has played to a +6.7 GSAx and .911 save percentage across 32 games played this season.
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Red Wings vs. Panthers
Betting Pick & Prediction
Detroit has played competitively enough the last several games to have me believing they can be more competitive than their price suggests in this matchup with Barkov sidelined. Lundell's surprisingly shaky play this season has been the only meaningful concern on the Panthers roster. He could potentially be exposed tonight as he looks to lead the top line.
By no means do I rate these teams closely, but with Barkov on the bench, I think this game deserves to be priced slightly closer. I would bet the Red Wings to their current price of +180.
I will also be keeping my eye on the Red Wings even-strength lines at the morning skate. If Sprong moves up to line two to fill Kane's role, I will be making a smaller play on him to record over 2.5 shots at +162.
Pick: Detroit Red Wings ML +180 (Caesars) | Play to +170
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