NHL Odds, Preview, Prediction: Sabres vs Blues (Thursday, November 30)
Via Chase Agnell-Dean/Getty Images. Pictured: Robert Thomas #18, Jake Neighbours #63 and Justin Faulk #72 of the St. Louis Blues celebrate after Neighbours scores against the Chicago Blackhawks in the first period at the United Center on November 26, 2023 in Chicago, Illinois.
Sabres vs. Blues Odds
| Sabres Odds | +104 |
| Blues Odds | -125 |
| Over / Under | 6.5 -115/ -105 |
Here's everything you need to know about Sabres vs. Blues on Thursday, Nov. 30 — our expert preview and betting prediction for today.
The Buffalo Sabres and St. Louis Blues face each other tonight just one point apart in the standings with the Blues owning the slightly better points percentage at .548.
The Sabres' 10-10-2 record has been a disappointment, but they enter off a quality 5-1 win at Madison Square Garden over the Rangers. Given their +104 price tag for this game in St. Louis, oddsmakers still view them as the slightly better side at a neutral site.
Most analysts were quite low on the Blues this offseason, who were likely to suffer from below-average goaltending and defensive play.
St. Louis' surprisingly strong 3.0 Goals Against Average has been a key reason for its strong record, but I am not sold on that continuing.
Find my Sabres vs. Blues preview and prediction for tonight below.
The Sabres have taken a significant step back offensively after finishing third in the league with 3.57 goals per game last season. It seemed likely that they would regress below that lofty number this season, but viewing them as a top-third offensive roster still made sense.
Early on Buffalo has not performed like a strong offense by any means, and its average of 2.67 goals per game has not simply been bad luck. The Sabres' offensive zone shot chart illustrates that quality looks from the interior have been hard to come by.
The Sabres have several key players whose greatest strengths involve generating quality offense, but those same players don't necessarily have the ability to suppress quality offense. It seems probable that improved defensive play was the main goal this season from coach Don Granato, and early on that seemed to come at too significant of a cost offensively.
In the last five outings, the Sabres have struck more of a balance as they have generated 3.04 xGF/60 and own a 50.31% Expected Goals Share.
The Sabres shuffled the deck upfront before their 5-1 victory over the Rangers and got the desired result. Alex Tuch and Dylan Cozens have been the team's most notable disappointments thus far, but both showed well when separated.
Even without Tage Thompson, the Sabres' top six should produce offense at a high level. The larger concern is that they do not project well to shut down most opposing superstars in head-to-head minutes.
We should expect Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen to follow up his brilliant effort against New York in this matchup. He owns a +1.4 GSAx this season and .915 save percentage in 11 appearances.
The Blues roster dictates that they should be a suspect team defensively that is capable of opportunistic finishing at the other end with a number of lethal scorers.
They came out the gates playing in a number of surprisingly low-event games, but over the last five games, the underlying numbers show they are becoming the team most expected.
They have generated 3.88 xGF/60 in the last five games, which is the second-highest mark in the league over that span. Their 3.22 xGA/60 rank is the 11th-highest mark in that sample, and the last 10 Blues games have featured an average goal total of 6.90 per game.
Jordan Binnington has been confirmed as the Blues starter in this matchup. His turnaround in form has been the greatest single reason for the Blues' strong start relative to preseason expectations.
Binnington owns a +5.2 GSAx and .910 save percentage in 16 appearances.
Sabres vs. Blue Jackets
Betting Pick & Prediction
Buffalo has been one of the NHL's more notable disappointments this season.
While its defensive play has been shaky at best, the transition into being a significantly below-average offense has been most surprising. Even without Thompson, such modest offensive play is unsustainable.
St. Louis has also played surprisingly low-scoring games. That's a product of both improved defense and surprisingly excellent goaltending.
The underlying numbers show that St. Louis is playing far more high-event games recently, though, and in time they should trend to considerably more high-scoring games.
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It's also unlikely both of these goaltenders continue to post such excellent numbers over a large sample. This soon could prove to be a matchup between two below-average starters.
Last season I would've been thrilled to see a total of 6.5 in this matchup to bet the over. The roster compositions still suggest the over should be a great play this season, even if these teams' final scores thus far do not suggest it.
I view this as a matchup with sneaky upside to break open offensively, and betting Over 6.5 at anything better than -115 provides value.
Pick: Over 6.5 -108 (DraftKings | Play to -115)
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