Tuesday NHL Odds, Picks, Prediction: Ottawa Senators vs. New York Islanders

Senators vs. Islanders Odds

The New York Islanders are getting closer and closer to finally ending their 11-game losing streak, but what will it take for them to finally get back in the win column?

A week ago, this would have looked like an obvious get-right spot for the Isles, taking on a Senators team that is traveling on a back-to-back. However, Ottawa has won three games in a row, two of which came against the Colorado Avalanche and the Carolina Hurricanes.

Despite their month-long streak, the Isles are -135 favorites on the road in Ottawa on Tuesday night.

Is Ottawa Turning a Corner?

The Ottawa Senators have plenty of young talent, but are clearly still in a rebuilding phase as they try to fill in the roster around Brady Tkachuk, Josh Norris, Tim Stutzle, Drake Batherson, Thomas Chabot and co. While the future is bright, the team has skated to a 7-15-1 record through the first quarter of the season.

Despite management thinking otherwise before the season, 2021/22 isn't really about contending for a playoff spot for this team, but rather continuing the development of this core.

While Ottawa's offense has been pretty pedestrian this season, it's hard to win when you're allowing nearly four goals a night. The Sens are allowing a league-worst 3.91 goals per game and their 2.56 expected goals allowed per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 is the fifth-worst mark, overall.

Ottawa's goaltending has also been a mess, though the team did shake up its netminding situation by waiving Matt Murray. Filip Gustavsson is expected to get the nod in net after Anton Forsberg went on Monday night and the 23-year-old Swede has struggled to an .899 save percentage (SV%) and a -1.6 Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx) in 10 games this season.

The Islanders Can't Catch a Break

It's getting late early on Long Island. Two weeks ago, everybody thought the Isles were just in a rut, but now folks are wondering if this team is just broken.

It's a fair assessment as the Isles rank 31st with 1.9 goals per game and have just two players — one of whom is injured — with more seven points on the season.

The good news for the Islanders is that they have been able to grab a point in each of their last three losses, but for one reason or another have failed to get the job done in overtime or the shootout.

While an 11-game losing streak is inexcusable in the NHL for any team, the Isles have been hit hard by Covid and injuries. At one point the team was forced to dress nine players from the AHL and had just one of their top-six defensemen in the lineup.

Additionally, the team has dealt with some absurdly poor puck luck, most notably a 2.95% shooting percentage at 5-on-5. At some point, that number will positively regress.

Regardless, this team hasn't looked like the same Islanders that we've seen during Barry Trotz's reign on Long Island. The Isles are allowing 2.39 expected goals (19th) and 11.95 high-danger scoring chances (25th) per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 this season.

New York's early season MVP is unquestionably goaltender Ilya Sorokin. The Russian netminder has somehow managed to post a +4.8 GSAx in 15 games this season. Barry Trotz hasn't named a starter for this game yet, but no matter if it's Sorokin or Semyon Varlamov — who seemed to find his game in his last start — the Isles should have the goaltending edge in this one.

Senators vs. Islanders Pick

It's hard to trust as a road favorite right now. While I understand they are the better team and this is a good spot with Ottawa on a back-to-back, I'm not interested in laying -135 on a team that is struggling mightily.

Ottawa has started to get some wins on the board and this team's talent should cause some problems for an Islanders defense that has not done a good job in front of their netminders.

And even though Ottawa's defense has been really bad, the Islanders aren't the type of team that will expose that weakness.

Pick: Ottawa Senators +110