Senators vs. Red Wings Odds
| Senators Odds | +108 |
| Red Wings Odds | -130 |
| Over / Under | 6.5 -160o / +130u |
Here's everything you need to know about the Ottawa Senators vs. Detroit Red Wings on Wednesday, Jan. 31 – our expert NHL prediction and pick.
Hockey fans have one last day of regular NHL action before the league shuts down for All-Star Weekend. The three-game slate Wednesday will kick off with the fourth and final meeting of the year between the Ottawa Senators and the Detroit Red Wings at Little Caesars Arena.
Now safely in a wild-card spot in the East, the Red Wings will look to pad their playoff cushion as they wrap up a strong month of January. And while the Senators have not lived up to expectations this season, they have shown signs of life over the last couple of weeks.
Nevertheless, with Alex Lyon on fire between the pipes for Detroit, let's take a look at why bettors should look for the home side to prevail in our Senators vs. Red Wings preview and prediction.
Ottawa Senators
Though the Senators have fallen too far in the standings to make any noise in this year's playoff race, they have started to turn things around under new coach Jacques Martin. Since Jan. 13, Ottawa is 5-2-2, and the Senators came back from a 3-0 deficit to earn a 4-3 overtime win over the Nashville Predators on Monday.
During this stretch, the Senators have been playing with outstanding structure, controlling a whopping 58.41% of expected goals at 5-on-5 while outshooting their opponents by an average of more than nine shots per game. They're also succeeding on 86.2% of their penalty kills.
With all those shots, Ottawa is scoring 3.67 goals per game. It's no surprise to see Tim Stützle and Brady Tkachuk leading the way, but the Senators are getting offensive contributions from throughout their lineup.
Joonas Korpisalo has been carrying most of the load in net, and was perfect when he came in to relieve Mads Sogaard after a rough first period against Nashville on Monday. Even with an improving environment in front of him, Korpisalo's personal stats aren't great, with an .888 save percentage and -13.4 goals saved above expected. But Monday night is a perfect example of how he's getting the job done, with a record of 4-1-2 in his last seven appearances.
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Detroit Red Wings
The Red Wings have gone 9-2-1 in January, and that success has given them a five-point edge in what had been a neck-and-neck Eastern Conference wild-card race earlier in the season.
They've probably been a bit lucky: their PDO for this month is third-best in the league at 104. But that number is driven primarily by good goaltending, headlined by a .933 team save percentage at 5-on-5. Lyon has taken over the No. 1 role and is running with it, now up to 13-6-1 on the year with a .924 save percentage and 9.6 goals saved above expected. Lyon has been named as Detroit's starter Wednesday.
The Red Wings have also averaged 3.42 goals a game this month, which puts them in the NHL's top 10. The hot hand belongs to captain Dylan Larkin, who has nine goals and 15 points in 12 January games. Lucas Raymond is also producing at better than a point per game, and Andrew Copp has chipped in five goals to reach double digits for the first time in three seasons.
Special teams have also been strong in January, with the power play clicking at 28.6% while the penalty kill is at 82.8%. So even though Detroit is being outshot by an average of 7.5 shots per game and sits 31st in 5-on-5 expected goals share at 40.58%, the Red Wings' combination of good goaltending, sharp shooting and strong special teams has propelled them up the standings.
Detroit's success has continued even with Patrick Kane forced to the sidelines. After putting up 16 points in 19 games, the three-time Stanley Cup winner has missed the last six games with a lower-body injury. He won't quite be ready to return Wednesday.
Senators vs. Red Wings
Betting Pick & Prediction
This is a fascinating matchup – two hot teams with one succeeding despite its goaltending and the other winning because of it.
Which way will the chips fall Wednesday?
The season series doesn't tell us much. In three earlier games this season, each team has one lopsided win, and the third game was a 5-4 overtime victory for the Senators – the only home win of the bunch. All three of the previous games also took place before Martin assumed head-coaching duties for Ottawa on Dec. 18.
But it's tough to argue against Lyon's hot hand, and Detroit is a strong 14-8-4 on home ice while Ottawa is just 6-13-0 on the road. The Red Wings will also be better rested – they haven't played since beating Vegas 5-2 on Saturday.
Detroit doesn't offer significant value on the moneyline, opening at -125. Bettors can boost their odds by looking to the Red Wings for a regulation win, available at a more enticing +115 on FanDuel.
Pick: Red Wings 3-way (win in 60 minutes): +115 at FanDuel | Play to +100
