Senators vs. Stars Odds
| Senators Odds | +172 |
| Stars Odds | -210 |
| Over / Under | 6.5 -106 / -114 |
Here's everything you need to know about Senators vs. Stars on Friday, Dec. 15 – our expert NHL prediction and pick.
The Stars have a significant scheduling advantage in this spot, as they have not played since Monday's 6-3 win over Detroit, while Ottawa is skating leg two of a road back-to-back. They continue to be less reliant on their top even strength unit than we have seen in previous years, and as a result owns a 3.44 goals for per game average this season.
Let's dig into the NHL odds and break down my Senators vs. Stars prediction and pick.
Ottawa Senators
There were some arguments for a potential Senators turnaround ahead of their Western road swing, but you would never know it if you watched their 4-2 loss in St. Louis Thursday. They now rank 25th in points percentage, which has people wondering if head coach D.J. Smith will still be in charge at the end of this trip.
For years now we have been hearing about the Senators were primed to pay off a lengthy rebuild with some success, with elite young talents such as Brady Tkachuk and Tim Stutzle in tow. Admittedly, I bought that hype this offseason and felt that this roster was ready to make some noise.
In the last ten games the Senators own an xGF% of 54.46, but have turned that into a record of only 4-6. They own a +3 goal differential, which ranks 16th in the league this season. You could argue the Sens' play hasn't been as bad as the results suggest, but at some point the results have to be there.
The writing could be on the wall for D.J. Smith, who could be somewhat of a sacrificial lamb if this road trip goes poorly. Even for truly good teams, games in Dallas, Vegas, and Colorado do not typically yield wins so it is hard to envision a strong record.
Inconsistent form from a goaltending tandem of Anton Forsberg and Joonas Korpisalo has been one of the main reasons for the Senators disappointing start. They have allowed 3.25 goals against per game this season, and have seen their goaltenders put up a save % of just .890.
Forsberg should likely get the start here with Korpisalo playing yesterday in St. Louis. He has put up a -6.1 GSAx and .885 save % in 10 appearances this season.
Dallas Stars
The Stars entered the season among the cup favorites as they were returning all of the key pieces from a team that lost in last years Western Final. Matt Duchene looked like a great addition on paper as well, as he offered some legitimate scoring upside at a great price.
Duchene has fit in well to this point alongside Mason Marchment and Tyler Seguin. They have played the vast majority of the year together and are achieving strong results. They own a 56.9% expected goal rating in 252.9 minutes together, and are generating 3.26 xG/60. Seguin continues to offer a great bounce-back story after some down seasons due to injury. He's put up 19 points in 27 games this season, and has had clear chemistry with a natural playmaker in Duchene.
Jake Oettinger has been confirmed as the Stars starter in this matchup. He has played to a -0.1 GSAx and .904 save % this season.
Senators vs. Stars
Betting Pick & Prediction
This is a scary spot in terms of what to expect from the Senators. Last night's performance was a clear low point in a trying start to the season, and now I wonder if the players are just going through the motions until D.J. Smith is released. On the other hand, a game that pathetic is often met with some sort of a response, and the Senators have been better than a 25th ranked team.
This is a tough back-to-back spot against a deep Stars team that has three lines of offensive upside and a strong powerplay.
One of the main reasons Dallas looks so legitimate this year has been the quality of play from its second line of Seguin, Duchene, and Marchment. They will get some solid matchups tonight in a game with a high total. Backing Seguin to record over 0.5 points (-105 at DraftKings) is my favorite way to back some production from that unit in this matchup.
Pick: Tyler Seguin Over 0.5 Points -105 (Play to -115)
