Wild vs Lightning Odds
| Wild Odds | +120 |
| Lightning Odds | -140 |
| Over / Under | 6.5 -105 / -115 |
The Wild snapped their four-game losing skid with an emphatic 5-0 victory over the Islanders on Monday.
They've lost eight of their last 10 games entering this matchup and will hope to prove the greatest causation of this lowly run of play has been a lengthy injury report.
Meanwhile, the Lightning continue to post relatively uneven play themselves and enter this matchup outside of the playoff picture based on points percentage.
They've own a 14-5-3 record on home ice, though, and are favored to build on that mark against a scuffling Wild side.
Minnesota Wild
From Nov. 28 to Dec. 27, the Wild opened up life under new coach John Hynes with an 11-3-0 run that propelled them back into the playoff picture.
They put up a 53.5% expected goals rating in that time, and the eye test would agree their play was well better than the league average.
Then came a weekend back-to-back with the league-leading Jets, which resulted in two losses, and more importantly the injury to superstar forward Kirill Kaprizov.
A plethora of key injuries followed immediately after Kaprizov's, including top goaltender Filip Gustavsson, Mats Zuccarello, Jonas Brodin and Marcus Foligno.
Suddenly, the Wild have lost eight of their last 10 games and have seemingly been written off by most observers.
Nobody likes excuses, but the Wild went through arguably the worst injury situation in the league, and it shouldn't be surprising they lost some games as a result. Only the Devils have played with nearly the same number of key roster pieces on the sidelines, and wouldn't you know it, they're underperforming as well.
Ahead of tonight's matchup, captain Jared Spurgeon is likely to be the only notable absence from the Wild lineup. Most teams wouldn't be excited to have an injury report featuring their captain — who is a hell of a player — but in Minnesota's case, it means a drastically better lineup than they've had of late.
Minnesota has confirmed Gustavsson will start in goal for tonight's game. He bounced back with a dominant stretch of play throughout December before suffering a lower-body injury.
He returned to action Monday against the Coyotes and allowed five goals on 18 shots against.
The fact that Gustavsson's only start since returning to the lineup was a disaster does add a layer of volatility to this matchup. However, he has been an above-average starter dating back to the start of last season and owns a +0.9 GSAx and .898 save percentage across 23 appearances this year.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forty-four games into the season, we seem to have a relatively clear understanding of who the 2023-24 Lightning are.
Due to a lack of support from further down the roster, they have suddenly become a team that's too reliant on elite performances from its stars to win games.
Their 22-17-5 record is an underachievement compared to lofty preseason expectations, and it's hard to make a case that this team is going to trend up drastically.
They've played to a -3 goal differential and rank 18th in the league with just 17 regulation wins.
Their six-week sample of work without superstar goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy hasn't been the main concern either.
Although Vasilevskiy's 2.86 GAA this year is the highest mark of his NHL career, his poor face-value statistics are likely more of an indication that the Lightning's defensive play is not what it once was. His +3.6 GSAx rating would agree.
In the last 15 games, the Lightning have allowed a 3.40 xGA/60, which is the 14th-highest mark in the league. They've played to a 49.6% expected goal rating in that same span.
The Lightning are suffering through some injuries on the back end themselves and will remain without Mikhail Sergachev and Haydn Fleury for this matchup, while Erik Cernak is listed as day-to-day.
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Wild vs Lightning
Betting Pick & Prediction
The Wild will be an interesting team to watch over the next couple of weeks, as they could stabilize with several key bodies back in the lineup after a horrid run of play.
A rematch with Tampa Bay is quite intriguing from a viewing and handicapping perspective because we can directly compare prices and how the Wild perform now versus when half of their lineup was out.
Ahead of their Jan. 4 meeting, I was confident that the Wild's injury situation was not being weighted heavily enough by oddsmakers, as Tampa was only a -130 favorite.
The price of this game is off for essentially the same reason. Now, the players who have returned are not being credited enough as a legitimate excuse for their team's ugly run of form recently.
Over the course of the season, the Wild's play is comparable to that of the Lightning, and I think these teams are a little more even than the price suggests. I'll play the Wild at anything better than +115.
Pick: Wild ML +120 (Play to +115)
