I had a great 2018 betting on props, thanks primarily to our FantasyLabs Tools, so for 2019 I am publishing a quick-n’-dirty daily piece in which I highlight one of my favorite props for the day.
A quick note on props: When a line is terribly wrong, I usually don’t even get the chance to write about it, because the line will have corrected by the time most people read the piece.
So the props I’ve written about this year haven’t truly been my favorites or the ones in which I’ve most heavily invested. Rather, they’ve been ones that offer an edge but not one that’s obvious or large enough to be immediately exploited by the market.
That distinction might not matter to some readers, but I want to be transparent about that.
For more information on my research process and the resources I use, see the master list of my 2019 prop bets.
2019 Year-to-Date Record
3-5-1, -1.73 Units
- Golf: 1-1-0, +0.25 Units
- NFL: 1-2-0, -0.85 Units
- NBA: 0-1-0, -1.0 Units
- NHL: 1-0-1, +0.87 Units
- NCAAF: 0-1-0. -1.0 Units
Freedman’s Favorite Prop Bet for Wednesday, Jan. 9: Collin Delia Total Saves Over/Under 29.5
The Pick: Over (-120)
I had success yesterday with some hockey props, and there are a few that offer value today.
In the Blackhawks-Predators game (NBCSN, 8 p.m. ET), Collin Delia will once again start at goalie for Chicago, and his prop is woefully low. In the NHL Props Tool, we have Delia projected for a slate-high 38.6 saves, so there’s massive value on the over.
While that number might seem high, Delia has 39, 47, 30, 46 and 35 saves in his last five starts.
For the year, the Blackhawks have allowed the second-most shots on goal at 34.78. And a look in the FantasyLabs NHL Models shows that they have allowed a whopping 49.57 shots per game over the past month.
This line is available at Bovada. At -120, I'd bet it to 32.5. At 29.5, I'd bet it to -145.
Matthew Freedman is the Editor-in-Chief of FantasyLabs. He has a dog and sometimes a British accent. In Cedar Rapids, Iowa, he’s known only as The Labyrinthian.
