We have a nice eight-game main slate on Tuesday, so we have plenty of opportunities to look for exploitable prop bets by leveraging our NHL Models and Trends tool at Fantasy Labs, as well as the Bet Labs database.
Here are four props I’m eyeing for Tuesday night, with the first puck drop at 7 p.m. ET.
Note: All lines via Bovada.
Senators RW Mark Stone
The pick: Under 2.0 shots on goal (+100)
Today’s slate provides some awesome value props, as Vegas appears to be behind on adjusting their lines for matchups. Going short on Stone makes a ton of sense at +100 as he's taking on a Boston squad with a bottom-three Corsi against on the slate over the past month.
Stone is averaging 2.18 shots per game over the past year, but the matchup makes it an intriguing under at the very least with the current odds. As we talked about on Tuesday’sInside the Lab, the Sens own our lowest Corsi for expectation on the entire slate.
Predators D P.K. Subban
The pick: Under 2.5 shots on goal (+110)
NHL player props tend to skew toward long-term averages and less toward recent production and matchups.
Subban is a fantastic example of that, averaging 2.58 shots per game over the past year but is somehow a +110 value in a putrid volume-based matchup. I don’t see him surpassing his longer-term mean tonight, as the Sharks have allowed the fourth-fewest shots per game this season (26.5).
Unsurprisingly, the Predators own a bottom-two Corsi for expectation, and Subban is projected to fall below expectation with a paltry 2.09 shot prediction in our Models.
Sharks G Martin Jones
The pick: Under 28.0 saves (-115)
I’m just going to keep hammering the under on Jones until Vegas gets more aggressive with these lines for Sharks goaltenders. Defensively, San Jose has been that good, allowing the fourth-fewest shots on goal per game (26.5).
Nashville is going the other way currently, with a bottom-five offensive Corsi for over the past month. Our proprietary save-prediction metric has Jones projected for only 26.6 saves, and he has seen merely 25 shots in each of his past two starts.
Ducks G John Gibson
The pick: Over 32.5 saves (-115)
Chicago has the fourth-most shots for (35.0 per game) and Anaheim has the most shots against (37.9) to start the season. Gibson has our highest save prediction on the slate (37.66), and the Blackhawks have the highest Corsi for expectation.
Another data point in favor of the over is Anaheim has surprisingly allowed the third-fewest goals this year (2.33), despite allowing a ton of shots. The spot sets up well well for saves, sometimes it’s as simple as that. Gibson has seen 35 or more shots on goal in five of his last six games.
