NHL betting analyst Nicholas Martin breaks down his three favorite plays ahead of Saturday's Game 6 of the Eastern Conference Finals showdown between the New York Rangers and Tampa Bay Lightning.
Igor Shesterkin Under 2.5 Goals Allowed +110 (Play to +100)
Shesterkin has cashed this line in 3-of-5 games so far in this series, and I think — even in Tampa — we have as good a chance of any of seeing him stay under 2.5 goals allowed once again.
In Game 5, the Rangers did a very sound job of insulating Shesterkin yet again, and it took a pair of seeing eye point shots to break through.
Credit goes to the Lightning, who are so effective at managing the kind of offense needed in the playoffs. But with that said, overall, it was another very sound defensive performance from the Rangers in Game 5.
This series has become tighter and tighter in each game, and in tonight's elimination game, I'm expecting a very sharply contested affair, with very few defensive breakdowns and next to no space.
I'm giving the Rangers a chance in this game, but I see this as a better way to get involved than just the +155 moneyline.
There's going to be a lot of versions of this game where New York loses and this line still cashes, especially as empty net goals do not count toward Shesterkin's over, which is a very important note.
I see value at this price.
No Goals First 10 Minutes of Second Period +145 (Neither Team to Score in First 9:59)
Sticking with the narrative that this should be an extremely tightly contested affair, I see value backing another long number at this price.
We do traditionally see somewhat higher scoring to start the second period, however, in this elimination spot, I expect both teams to be fully settled in at this point.
With both goaltenders and both defenses in excellent form right now, it's fair to say that getting plus money on no goal inside of any 10-minute span — outside of the last 10 minutes of the third — holds value.
Priced at +145 for no goal to start the second –as opposed to -120 to begin the first — I think we have value on this long number, and I would play this down to +135.
Under 5.5 -140 (Play to -150)
All series long I've been very keen on the narrative that the Under would remain a very profitable play if it continues to stay at 5.5. Even at this heavily juice number, we have some clear value here.
The last four games of this series have gone under the total of 5.5, and there is some clear and obvious causation as to why.
Neither team is allowing much in the way of true defensive breakdowns, and each are holding a goaltender in spectacular form. We aren't going to see either side drastically change any tactics heading into this Game 6, and I feel it's quite unlikely we see much offense.
