NHL betting analyst Nicholas Martin breaks down his four favorite plays ahead of Monday’s Game 4 of the Western Conference Finals showdown between the Edmonton Oilers and Colorado Avalanche.
Colorado Avalanche 3-Way Moneyline +120 (Play to +110)
Colorado has clearly been the better side throughout three contests of this series, which is far from surprising considering how much more support it offers its elite superstars compared to the Oilers.
The Avalanche hold a 60.76 xGF% throughout the opening three contests of this series, which has surely attributed to their significant lead in power-play time.
Rather than reach for reasons as to why Edmonton can find a win, I would prefer to just make a play based upon what we've seen — that outside of the Leon Draisaitl and Connor McDavid, Edmonton isn't showing much reason to steal victories against this much deeper Colorado side.
The loss of Nazem Kadri is very significant, and I do rate Kadri as a more valuable player altogether than Evander Kane, who will also be out due to suspension. But Colorado is better equipped to handle such a loss than the Oilers.
If Pavel Francouz provides league-average netminding yet again, Colorado has a strong chance of completing the sweep Monday. I like a play on an Avalanche regulation win at +120, and I would play that to +110.
Connor McDavid Over 4.5 Shots on Goal (+125 | Play to +115)
McDavid has missed this number in five straight contests, but I believe we have some strong reasoning to go back to the well after missing on this play in Game 3.
In Edmonton's elimination games against Los Angeles, we saw McDavid average nearly 26 minutes on ice, generating six shots in each of those games.
He skated 26:47 in Game 3 while generating four shots on goal from six attempts. It's quite likely we could end up seeing a ridiculous time on ice total from the Oilers' captain tonight, which gives us a better chance to hit the over here than the plus number suggests.
Mikko Rantanen Over 3.5 Shots On Goal (+120 | Play to +110)
Rantanen has been spectacular so far in this series and has been a crucial part of the Avalanche's dominance throughout the first three games.
He's generated an average of five shots on goal and 6.6 attempts so far in the series, playing on a second line that has given Edmonton fits.
The loss of Kadri to that second unit certainly hurts, but that should mean J.T. Compher will slide up. That will still allow Rantanen a strong chance to generate at 5-on-5.
J.T. Compher Anytime Goalscorer +285 (Play to +270)
As touched on above, Compher should elevate to the Avalanche's second line, and rightfully so, because he has been excellent over the last two series.
Compher has managed five goals over his last four games and has generated 10 shots on goal during that span while playing on a third unit that features far less potent wingers than Rantanen and Artturi Lehkonen.
The major books seem to only be offering anytime goalscorer at +285, which is certainly worthy of a small play. But keeping an eye out for SOG or point props for Compher is my preferred move.
Caesars has Compher listed at +140 for three shots on goal, while some books have Compher to score a point at +122. if your preferred books have prices close to those, I would certainly recommend some plays there.
