NHL betting analyst Nicholas Martin breaks down his four favorite plays ahead of Saturday’s Game 3 of the Western Conference Finals showdown between the Edmonton Oilers and Colorado Avalanche.
Connor McDavid Over 4.5 Shots (+125 | Play to +115)
McDavid has missed this number in five consecutive games entering tonight's action, and in turn, this is far from the chalky play it might appear to be.
However, McDavid has clearly brought out his absolute best performances this postseason in the biggest possible spots, and I think we can count on him to find a way to be heavily involved tonight.
At home, head coach Jay Woodcroft should be able to find McDavid more minutes away from the league's best defensive pairing of Devon Toews and Cale Makar, which will go a long way in helping McDavid's unit to generate more attempts on goal.
Playing for McDavid to manage two points is another reasonable option, but I like this long number for five shots on goal in this spot, as I feel McDavid will surge past his recent averages.
Mikko Rantanen Anytime Goalscorer (+160 | Play to +140)
Calgary's second unit generated a wealth of opportunities at the tail end of the Battle of Alberta, and targeting that unit to thrive was great for us. For a number of reasons, I felt Colorado's second line was even more likely to give Edmonton fits.
That narrative has entirely come to fruition in two games, as the Avalanche's second line of Mikko Rantanen, Nazem Kadri and Artturi Lehkonen has combined for 11 points and controlled play to an expected goals rate of 81.9% at 5-on-5 in this series.
Rantanen features on the Avalanche's top power-play unit as well, which has looked excellent in this series. Altogether, this is a long number for a player who's quite likely to get a lot of scoring chances again tonight.
Obviously, McDavid, Makar, Leon Draisaitl and Nathan MacKinnon drew most of the headlines entering the series, but Rantanen is a true superstar himself and has started to show it more over the last handful of playoff outings.
I'll note that if you did play Rantanen at +750 to be the series' leading goal-scorer, I would not add to that by playing him to score specifically in this game. But otherwise, I certainly believe getting a +160 price for Rantanen is a worthy play in this contest.
I'll also note that if your book has the option for two points at +180, that could be another very reasonable option.
Artturi Lehkonen Over 0.5 Points (+100)
Lehkonen has recorded a point in each of the first two contests of this series, and that's no surprise for all of the reasons outlined above regarding the Avalanche's second line.
Lehkonen is a highly intelligent player, and while he's far from the biggest threat on the Avs' ridiculously strong second line, he's a perfect complement to two supremely talented stars in Kadri and Rantanen.
I believe Edmonton will manage a better performance tonight, but it's still quite likely we see Colorado score three-plus goals. At plus money, we have some strong value to back Lehkonen to be in the mix.
Leon Draisaitl Over 1.5 Points (+110 | Play to +100)
This play finally missed with Colorado's dominant shutout of the Oilers in Game 2, but I feel we have good reason to get back on board with it in Game 3.
Edmonton's top unit should have a greater opportunity to make a difference tonight while skating more minutes away from Makar and Toews. I also expect Edmonton to manage a better effort in this game.
Draisaitl has scored 28 points in 14 playoff games so far and has cashed this line eight times in that span. While Colorado's clearly the best team Edmonton has faced this postseason, I still feel this number holds value.
Edmonton generated just 1.06 expected goals in Game 2, which is simply a dismal mark.
However, I believe we should see the Oilers find a way to generate far more chances tonight and actually make life hard on Pavel Francouz in Colorado's goal. He will no doubt be in a tougher environment on the road in front of what has been a notably raucous Oilers crowd this postseason.
Should the Oilers find more offensively it will most likely come from the combination of Draisaitl and McDavid. Considering Draisaitl has scored step-for-step with McDavid this postseason, backing Draisaitl to reach two points at +110 looks better to me than playing McDavid at -140.
