Panthers vs. Capitals Odds
| Panthers Odds | -185 |
| Capitals Odds | +160 |
| Over/Under | 6.5 |
| Time | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | TBS |
| Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute NHL Odds here. | |
The Florida Panthers will travel to the nation's capital on Friday night to take on the Capitals in an attempt to close out the series and move on to the second round.
Washington had a 3-0 lead in Game 5 and looked like they would be heading back home with a 3-2 lead, but Florida soared back and ended up winning the game on their home ice.
Will the Caps be able to hold things together and even the series, or will the Panthers get the last win they need?
Florida Panthers
Game 5 of this series looked like it was going to end in a Capitals win, as Washington jumped out to a 3-0 lead and the Panthers could not get much going on the offensive end of the ice.
However, Florida came storming back and ripped off five unanswered goals to win the game, and that kind of offensive attack has been a good summary of just how well this team can perform on the offensive end.
Out of the 16 teams to make the postseason, Florida ranks fifth in Expected Goals For per 60 minutes (xGF/60) in 5-on-5 situations with 2.96. That numbers is a small drop from their regular season xGF/60 of 3.16, which led the NHL, but it still proves that this team is one of the most competitive and toughest offensive attacks to deal with.
Furthermore, the Panthers have pieced together a good defensive performance in the first round, having the fourth-fewest total goals against in 5-on-5 according to Money Puck.
Some of that is in part from great play in net by Sergei Bobrovsky, who will likely be the starter in this one. Bobrovsky extended a stellar regular season into the postseason, and in Round 1 has an SV% of .920 and 2.4 Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx).
Washington Capitals
As previously mentioned, if it wasn't for a collapse that began mid-way through the second period, Washington would be the team that is up 3-2 in this series.
However, giving up five unanswered goals ultimately was the nail in the coffin, and now the Caps are fighting to keep their season alive, but there are some things that may stand in their way.
According to Natural Stat Trick, Washington ranks 12th out of the 16 playoff teams in Expected Goals Against per 60 minutes (xGA/60) with 2.96 in 5-on-5, only ahead of Dallas, Nashville, LA, and New York. In addition, they have given up the second most goals in 5-on-5 with 14, which shows their defensive play has been shaky and is vulnerable at times.
They haven't been able to combat their poor defense with good offense either, which has made matters worse. For the entire postseason the Caps have posted an xGF/60 of 2.59, which ranks ninth this postseason. However, when they are on their home ice that number falls to 2.05.
They have clearly had their fair share of struggles in this series, and it may cause them to lose in the first round.
Panthers vs. Capitals Pick
I do think that returning to their home ice with their backs against the wall will work in Washington's favor, but this is a game where I think the total is a better play.
Florida has proven they can score the puck at will all season, and now they have 16 total goals through five playoff games to once again back their case. However, their performance in Washington this series has not compared to the rest of the series, as they are being outscore 8-4 by the Capitals as the road team.
A line of 6.5 goals is a high number, but it is certainly a total that is in play given the circumstances surrounding this game.
Pick: Total Over 6.5 (-110)
