Rangers vs. Penguins Odds
| Rangers Odds | -115 |
| Penguins Odds | -105 |
| Over/Under | 6.5 (+100 / -120) |
| Time | 7 p.m. ET |
| TV | TNT |
| Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute NHL Odds here. | |
We have a potential series-clinching matchup on deck Friday, as the Pittsburgh Penguins host the New York Rangers with a 3-2 series lead.
Following New York's 5-3 win over the Penguins in Game 5, the total has now cleared 6.5 goals in each of the first five games in this series.
So, will we see yet another high-scoring affair between these teams or can the goaltending step up this time around? Let’s take a look at this matchup.
New York Rangers
The Rangers, who enter this contest looking to force a Game 7, has been on fire offensively, as they are averaging 3.8 goals scored per game in the series.
I don’t expect much regression from this number since the Rangers boast an average of 3.07 expected goals per game. On the other hand, goaltender Igor Shesterkin continues to struggle this postseason.
Through the first five games, Shesterkin possesses a 0.905 save percentage and 3.99 goals allowed average. While these numbers are far below his season totals, his metrics suggest that positive regression might be far away.
Over his last four starts, Shesterkin has a game average of -0.37 goals saved above expected. In Shesterkin's defense, New York's blue line has also been terrible.
This should not be shocking, as New York has had trouble in front of Shesterkin all season. Currently, the Rangers rank just 16th in the league in 5-on-5 xGA per 60 minutes.
Pittsburgh Penguins
The Penguins enter this matchup looking to close out the series on home ice. A big storyline for Pittsburgh is the status of Sidney Crosby, who is questionable after leaving Game 5 with an upper-body injury.
Despite this uncertainty, Pittsburgh's offense should continue to roll. Through the first five games of this series, the Penguins are averaging 4.6 goals scored per contest.
Like New York, this figure is par for the course, as it has generated an average of 5.3 xG per game in this series. Pittsburgh's offense has been dynamite all season, ranking seventh in the league in 5-on-5 xG per 60 minutes.
Meanwhile, the Penguins have been handicapped in goal, as they have been forced to start their third-stringer over the past four games due to injuries to Tristan Jarry and Casey DeSmith. Despite a strong performance when taking over in overtime of Game 1, goaltender Louis Domingue has struggled the last four games.
During that stretch, Domingue has a mere 0.887 save percentage and 3.75 goals allowed average. I don’t expect any positive regression from Domingue since he has generated a game average of -1.09 GSAx over those four starts.
Rangers vs. Penguins Pick
With the current performance of each goaltender and how good these offenses have been, I think the trend of high-scoring games will continue in this Game 6 clash.
Even if Sidney Crosby misses this contest, the Penguins are deep enough offensively that they should still be able to generate plenty of high-danger scoring chances against a poor Rangers defense.
Overs have been a hot bet, not only in this series but in the entire league this postseason, and I expect this game to keep that trend going.
Pick: Total Over 6.5 Goals (+100)
