NHL betting analyst Nicholas Martin breaks down his four favorite plays from Monday’s slate of Game 4 playoff games across the landscape.
Andrei Vasilevskiy — Over 32.5 Saves (-115 | Play to -120)
Panthers vs. Lightning — 7 p.m. ET
Florida might not be playing quite as sharp as the Lightning on defense, but surely the wide appearance in strength of play so far between these teams has been heavily punctuated by Vasilevskiy's excellence.
Vasilevskiy has cashed when it comes to this wager in all three previous games of this series, averaging 35 saves per contest.
I believe we will see the Panthers come out desperate again and control the overall run of play at a livable rate. However, Florida seems to be falling into the same rhythm of only being able to generate the kind of chances Vasilevskiy will handle comfortably on average and Tampa Bay is fine with that.
The Lightning are bending but not breaking, and the result continues to be higher shot outputs for the Panthers in this series.
Florida led the NHL in shots per 60 minutes (37.85) in the regular season, so I believe we will see the underdog get to around that mark in this do-or-die spot as it looks to avoid what would certainly be a fairly embarrassing sweep.
Aleksander Barkov — Over 3.5 Shots (+100 | Play to -110)
Panthers vs. Lightning — 7 p.m. ET
Barkov has averaged just over 22 minutes of ice time per game, generating 14 shots from 25 attempts in the series.
Altogether this postseason, Barkov has averaged four shots per game, cashing this line six times in nine contests. So, weshould see Barkov again given a ton of ice-time as the Panthers look to avoid elimination.
I believe we have a better than 50% chance of cashing this play. Therefore, we are getting some value at +100, and I'd play the over 3.5 down to -110 odds.
Florida vs. Tampa Bay — First Period Under 1.5 (+130 | Play to +115)
This prop has cashed in all three elimination games these teams played in the opening round, as well as two of the opening three contests in this series.
Teams are always likely to look to settle in to these big moments without making many mistakes, and we have seen very few complete defensive breakdowns in this series. That said, I don't expect to see that change here.
Both Vasilevskiy and Sergei Bobrovsky have been tremendous, so I think we have some strong value at the valuable number of +130 for the first period to stay under one goal or less.
Jordan Kyrou — Over 2.5 Shots on Goal (Play to -110)
Kyrou has cashed this number in all three games, with 12 attempts leading to nine shots on goal total, and it could be even more likely he hits this mark.
Samuel Girard's injury certainly makes Colorado's second defensive pairing much more of a target. That said, Kyrou should be considerably more likely to play in the offensive zone in minutes against the pairing of Jack Johnson and Josh Manson than he was against the pairing of Girard and Manson.
