NHL betting analyst Nick Martin breaks down his three favorite plays from tonight's massive contest at Madison Square Garden between the Hurricanes and Rangers.
Under 5.5 (-145 | Play to -155)
While it's not a ton of fun to push such a juiced line, I still feel that we have value on a play that has hit every game in this series.
Both teams are averaging 1.8 goals per game in this series, and that's far from surprising considering the way these two outfits matchup.
Carolina has been one of the league's best defensive squads all season and have played to that strength throughout much of this series. And while it hasn't limited chances as effectively on the road this postseason, I expect that to end tonight.
New York has done a significantly better job of insulating Igor Shesterkin with more sound defensive play throughout this series than we saw against Pittsburgh. At home, we saw the Rangers allow just one goal against in each of Games 3 and 4.
Tonight should be a very hard-fought contest, and it would be surprising for me to see this one break open without a number of fluky goals finding their way in. Even at -145, I see value on a play that I feel should be hitting 65% of the time.
Carolina Hurricanes ML -105 (Play to -110)
It's simply unlikely for Carolina to continue its crazy splits this postseason — the club has gone 7-0 at home and 0-5 on the road. In recent NHL history, we haven't seen anything like that, and Carolina's play hasn't been that different on the road than at home.
I believe that the Hurricanes are still the better team in this series. Being priced as a slight underdog in this spot entirely based upon home vs. road play seems to give us some value.
My thoughts are that either Carolina ends it today, or New York may steal this series in Game 7 back in Raleigh.
Carolina has played to a 53.1 xGF% so far in the series, and I think getting the team that has been moderately better as a slight underdog.
My other thought is that if you're going to bet the Rangers to win this game, I see more value in playing them to win the series at +325.
Andrei Svechnikov Over 2.5 Shots (-135 | Play to -145)
Svechnikov has made a bigger difference in each game as the series has progressed and has now managed 23 attempts over his last three contests, with 13 reaching the net.
Svechnikov is simply way too talented to not make more of a difference than we've seen early on in this postseason. It feels like his play has continued to trend upward over each of the last three games, and I believe we will see him continue to be heavily involved tonight.
At -135, we have some strong value for him to get three shots on the net. I would play this prop to -145.
