NHL betting analyst Nicholas Martin breaks down his four favorite plays from tonight’s battle between the Blues and Avalanche (8 p.m. ET), as St. Louis looks to avoid elimination.
Colorado First Period -0.5 (+145 | Play to +135)
The last thing Colorado will want to do in this Game 6 is let St. Louis get itself into a situation that puts pressure on the Avs, who have seen some playoff collapses with this core.
That said, Colorado has been a handful for this Blues team to keep in check, and I believe the Avalanche will come out flying Friday and show just how much better they are.
St. Louis captured the momentum late in Game 6 and found some favorable luck in front of goal, but it was pretty clear how Colorado dominated prior.
I expect a similar narrative Friday and see value early as Colorado looks to snag an early lead at this long number.
Artturi Lehkonen 0ver 0.5 Points (+100 | Play to -115)
We played this in Game 5 at -105 and were rewarded, as Lehkonen broke through with an assist. I certainly feel this prop holds a lot of value again at a longer number.
Lehkonen has skated with Gabriel Landeskog and Nathan MacKinnon on the Avs' top unit in Games 4 and 5, and he appears set to remain in that spot tonight following Colorado's morning skate.
That trio has been dominant over the last two games, playing to a 59.5 xGF% and generating 24 shots on goal.
Lehkonen has been a proven playoff performer the last two seasons and was tremendous during Montreal's surprising run in 2021. It's not surprising to see him used in an elevated role with MacKinnon and Landeskog, and in that spot, he's more likely to net a point than odds of +100 suggest.
Nathan MacKinnon Over 4.5 Shots (-132 | Play to -145)
Perhaps the biggest reason Lehkonen is likely to get a point in this contest is due to the otherworldly play we're seeing from MacKinnon.
We saw MacKinnon post the goal of the playoffs late in Game 5 on a beautiful end-to-end rush for his third of the contest. He's been through some tough playoff losses with this Avalanche team, yet has always performed in the biggest moments.
This is MacKinnon's best chance yet to win a Stanley Cup, and I expect an inspired performance Friday.
His line should generate a ton of chances on net. It's next to impossible to keep this guy entirely in check when he's playing as he did in Game 5, and I expect MacKinnon to hit his playoff average of 5.77 shots on goal in this contest.
