Action Network NHL betting analyst Nick Martin breaks down his top four plays for Thursday's NHL Playoffs slate.
Carolina Hurricanes Moneyline +110
Carolina Hurricanes vs. Boston Bruins
7 p.m. ET · TNT
Carolina fell into a fluky mess of penalties in Game 4 before ultimately falling apart. The collapse started with a lost goalie interference review challenge by Rod Brind'Amour, before a 4:00 high sticking penalty to Sebastien Aho.
The Bruins capitalized and ultimately paid off that contest with a win, but it seemed apparent that run of breaks gave Boston the win. Furthermore, if nothing of the sort happened in Game 5, it was likely that Carolina would bounce-back.
Well the Canes did just that, with an absolute domination of the Bruins in every area of the ice, and I think they will follow it up in Boston tonight.
Even though home ice has been effective in this series with teams going 4-0, the Hurricanes being priced at +110 is a massive overcompensation. This is a great number with Carolina having been the better side.
Pick: Carolina Hurricanes moneyline
Connor McDavid Over 3.5 Shots -110
Edmonton Oilers vs. Los Angeles Kings
10 p.m. ET · TBS
A number of the Oilers' standard playoff flaws have shined through, with its defensive core looking to-a-man worse than these upstart young Los Angeles Kings.
Captain Connor McDavid has tried his best to counteract that, and he likely must deliver a massive performance in tonight's contest to keep the Oilers' season alive.
McDavid has fired 6.6 attempts on goal per game during this series, with his lowest number of attempts unsurprisingly coming in the Oilers' 8-2 blowout in Game 3.
Well, I certainly don't think we can expect a blowout tonight, and it's conceivable that this team will end up relying on Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl to play ridiculous minutes, particularly if the game is tied or Edmonton end up trailing late.
Pick: Connor McDavid over 3.5 shots -110 (Play to -120)
Leon Draisaitl Over 3.5 Shots +115
Edmonton Oilers vs. Los Angeles Kings
10 p.m. ET · TBS
So for the same reasons, I think we have a great chance of cashing with Draisaitl on this prop tonight as well. This is a strategy I have employed frequently this season, where we are looking to at worst find a split between two players on the same side, but with a realistic chance at hitting both.
Draisaitl has attempted an average of 6.0 shots per game in this series, with a surprisingly low output reaching goal of just 2.8 per game. He's always going to get his looks from his flank on the Oilers' lethal power-play, and getting this plus number in this particular spot is a good buy-low opportunity for this perennial 50-goal candidate.
Pick: Leon Draisaitl over 3.5 shots +115 (Play to +105)
Adrian Kempe Over 3.5 Shots -115
Edmonton Oilers vs. Los Angeles Kings
10 p.m. ET · TBS
Contrary to Draisaitl and McDavid, both of whom cracked this list in a spot where I am expecting higher than average shot outputs, Kempe warrants consideration due to his impressive recent shot output averages.
Kempe has been crushing this prop for months, and has slowly trended all the way up from over 2.5 to 3.5 with a slightly juiced line, and I still think there's value here.
Kempe has averaged 4.86 shots on goal over his last 15 games, and that number has increased during this series where he has averaged 5.4 shots on goal per game.
Kempe is a marvelous skater as we saw on the Game 5 overtime winner, and will both create and take looks all over the ice. He also mans the left flank on the powerplay, where he is consistently teed up for looks by the vastly underrated Sean Durzi.
