Round 2 of the NHL playoffs gets underway Tuesday night with a pair of excellent Game 1 contests. NHL betting analyst Nick Martin breaks down his three favorite plays below.
Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Florida Panthers, 7 p.m. ET
Corey Perry: Anytime Goal Scorer (+350, Play to +325)
Let's get started with a fun one here, as we look at a guy who's consistently found greasy net-front goals throughout his playoff career.
Corey Perry found two goals in the opening round vs Toronto, and Tampa continues to rely upon its fourth line more heavily than one might expect, so even in a normal outing +350 isn't an awful number.
However, the most important reason this play holds more value entering tonight's contest is because Perry will in all likelihood slide in to Brayden Point's bumper role on the Lightning's vaunted top power play unit.
Perry missed practice Monday, but is widely expected to play tonight, and will likely do so in that key role as we saw during the Lightning's power play's after Point left Game 7.
So I see this long shot being worth a smaller play against a Florida team that continues to allow a lot of quality chances against, night after night, and is by no means feared due to its defensive play.
I see this play holding value down to +325, which is another available on several shops at the time of writing. We always want to ensure that we are still playing within our thresholds of value, something that I think is less commonly practiced when we look towards these longer numbers.
St. Louis Blues vs. Colorado Avalanche, 9:30 p.m. ET
Nathan Mackinnon Over 4.5 Shots On Goal (-135, Play to -145)
Nathan MacKinnon cashed this prop in all four games of the Avalanche's opening round series vs the Predators, and that was far from surprising watching his insane level of play altogether.
He averaged 7.25 shots on goal in that series, with a ridiculous shot attempt average of 11 per game.
MacKinnon has always seemed to reserve another gear for the postseason, and that was very evident in round one. St. Louis is no doubt a better side than the Predators, but not with regards to its ability to suppress shots in goal.
It's easy to see why MacKinnon is still likely to cash this prop at a profitable rate all series long vs St. Louis.
Jordan Kyrou Over 2.5 Shots on Goal (+120, Play to +115)
David Perron is the more obvious shot prop on the Blues side, and I certainly think a play on his over is very reasonable again. But everybody has seen that and is on it, which leads to a heavily inflated price at -150, and I project more value with Jordan Kyrou considering this number.
Kyrou cashed the over 2.5 in 4/6 contests vs Minnesota, averaging 2.66 shots on goal per game. His shot attempt rates should not dip too notably against this spectacular Colorado team, as he will likely not skate a ton of minutes against the Makar/Toews tandem, and should still be taking the ice in livable matchups.
Kyrou will be a crucial X-factor for the Blues to have any hope in this series, as when he is on his game he is certainly one of the most dynamic players on either side not featured on the top units.
