Bruins vs. Hurricanes Game 7 Odds
| Bruins Odds | +110 |
| Hurricanes Odds | -135 |
| Over/Under | 5.5 (-120 / +100) |
| Time | 4:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
| Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute NHL Odds here. | |
After being thoroughly outplayed on the road in Game 5, Boston bounced back with a clutch 5-2 win in Game 6, and will now enter Game 7 with the opportunity to knock this Canes team out for the third time in the era of coach Rod Brind'Amour.
Carolina battled all season to earn home-ice advantage for exactly this moment, and home-ice has afforded r a significant edge in this series specifically, where the home sides have gone 6-0.
Which of these contenders will keep their season alive at PNC Arena on Saturday?
Boston Bruins
Should Boston hope to extend its season, it will need to perform markedly better than what it has managed so far in Raleigh. The Bruins have gone 0-3 while being outscored 15-4 in those contests — or 11-4 if we exclude empty-net goals.
Boston has played to a 49.63 expected goals rate in this series, which has been the kind of back-and-forth struggle many expected from two team's with realistic Stanley Cup aspirations.
Both clubs were among the league's best defensive teams during the regular season. Boston finished fourth in goals allowed, and Carolina allowed the least goals against in the NHL.
Boston finished the season with the league's lowest expected goals against at 1.93, and that mark was a big reason why Boston became a trendy Stanley Cup pick late in the regular season.
At times, we have seen cagey, tight-checking play, but it has often come undone with one team being forced to chase the game late.
Boston and Carolina have combined for an average of 6.5 goals during the series. However, I would not expect a Bruce Cassidy-coached team to produce such a mark over a larger sample.
Boston heads to Carolina knowing that it cannot expect to score its way past defensive breakdowns. Furthermore, the Bruins will expect a detailed and sharp game from the Hurricanes.
For Boston to advance, its top players must be more successful offensively. Brad Marchand, Patrice Bergeron and David Pastrnak have combined for just three points in the three contests in Raleigh.
Defender Matt Grzelcyk is a game-time decision, but the Bruins will otherwise be at full-strength.
Jeremy Swayman will start in goal for the Bruins. Swayman has followed up a great regular season with a solid start to the series, posting a +1.1 goals saved above expected rating with a .913 save percentage since entering in Game 3.
Carolina Hurricanes
The Carolina Hurricanes could have already ended this series if they had delivered 60-minute efforts in each contest.
Carolina has looked like the sharper side overall, but they have also made more critical mistakes at the wrong times.
Similar to Boston, Carolina will enter Game 7 not expecting a wealth of opportunities in front of goal. Instead, the Canes will keep layers behind the puck and strive to limit mistakes.
Carolina will likely remain without Jordan Martinook, alongside the key loss to Frederik Andersen in goal.
Antti Raanta will start in goal for Carolina. He has played to a +0.7 goals saved above expected rating with a .926 save percentage through five games in the series.
Bruins vs. Hurricanes Pick
All series long, I have been surprised at how high-scoring the games have been, but it's unlikely we see that trend recur in the final contest.
Most of these totals have been boosted considerably by late flurries and empty-nets. This crucial Game 7 really sets up for a tight-checking affair where grade-A scoring opportunities should be at a premium.
The last 17 Game 7's have averaged 5.11 combined goals per game, with the under going 11-6 during that span. These two clubs were tremendous defensively all season long, and it's more likely we see that side of their game shine through in this spot.
At -120 for this game to stay under 6, I think we have some strong value to back a low-scoring, tight-checking affair in Game 7. I lean towards Carolina taking this game, but its price of -135 seems fair.
We have also seen the vast majority of the scoring come in the third or even late-third period. My expectation is that tomorrow we see something similar, with both teams looking to avoid being the first to make a mistake in front of goal.
Therefore, I also see value backing the first period to stay under 1.5 at +100, and would play that down to -110.
Picks: Under 6 -120 (Play 6 to -140), First Period Under 1.5 +100 (Play to -110)
