Action Network NHL betting analyst Nick Martin breaks down his top four plays for Saturday's trio of Game 7 matchups.
Victor Hedman Over 2.5 Shots on Goal (-175)
Lightning vs. Maple Leafs (-130) — 7 p.m. ET
If you could bet on who would likely log the most time-on-ice in this crucial Game 7, Victor Hedman would be your guy. Hedman skated 31:43 in Game 6, and as usual put a lot of pucks on goal, finishing with four shots on target, with three inside of regulation.
He has averaged 4.16 shots on goal in this series, and has cashed this number in five of the six games so far in this series. Dating back to the regular season, Hedman is on a ridiculous run cashing this line in 17 of his last 18 games. Although Toronto could theoretically hold Tampa to a lower amount. I'd play this up to -185.
Connor McDavid Over 3.5 Shots (-140)
Kings vs. Oilers (-211) — 10 p.m. ET
The Oilers are in this Game 7 because their Captain, and likely the world's best player, came out and dragged them there with his Game 6 performance. He skated 24:02 minutes in regulation as a forward, which is simply ridiculous.
McDavid set the tone early in that contest, with a beautiful end-to-end rush ending in a wrap around goal for the 1-0 lead. His final Game 6 stat-line: six shots, 10 shot-attempts, one goal, and two assists.
Edmonton really isn't far beyond the Los Angeles by any means, and I think the chances that we see this game stay close, and Oilers coach Jay Woodcroft again leaning very heavily upon McDavid, are high.
I'm torn between this and some of his other props, but I feel comfortable that we will see the minutes stay high leading to a strong shot output. If you prefer playing for a goal or over 1.5 points, those are very reasonable as well in a spot where I think McDavid will make an impact. I would play this to -150.
Mike Smith Over 30.5 Saves (-125)
All season long L.A. has controlled play at an effective rate, and has a notable shot-first mentality amongst the entire group.
This has shown through clearly in this series, where Mike Smith has averaged 35.8 saves per game, and frankly I don't think he has even played all that well. We could see somewhat of a tighter contest here, but I still think there's a strong chance the Kings end up with 35-plus shots on goal.
The Kings' speed up-and-down the lineup has continued to give problems to this Oilers group, and they certainly have been content to try and get as many pucks as possible on the net. I would play this up to -135.
Arthur Kaliyev Over 2.5 Shots (+140)
One player on L.A. who has certainly helped to drive up those team shot averages and attempts is Arthur Kaliyev. He possesses a very heavy wrist-shot with a great release, and has rightfully looked to shoot often in this series.
Kaliyev has cashed this long number in three of the six games this series, averaging 2.44 on goal while attempting 4.83 shots per game. At the price of +140 we have value backing this bottom-six guy to keep firing whenever possible. Play to +130.
