NHL betting analyst Nicholas Martin breaks down his four favorite plays for tonight’s Game 2 of Rangers vs. Hurricanes and Oilers vs. Flames.
Rangers vs. Hurricanes, 8 p.m. ET
Teuvo Teravainen — Over 2.5 Shots on Goal +110 (play to +100)
In Game 1, Carolina coach Rod Brind'Amour decided to shuffle his lines after two periods, moving Teuvo Teravainen to the top unit after the Hurricanes' dreadful opening two periods.
The results were emphatic, as Carolina's top unit was spectacular in the third before producing the eventual tying goal. You'd think the changes will stick heading into tonight's contest since Teravainen remained on Sebastian Aho's wing at the morning skate.
In a tiny 5-minute sample size, that unit produced a 100% xGF rate and managed eight shots on goal to the Rangers' zero in that time. We saw New York had no answers for the Penguins' top trio last series, and I think it's reasonable to expect the Teravainen-Aho-Seth Jarvis line to produce a strong number of attempts on goal tonight.
As was the case in Game 1, I see some value backing Jarvis to go over his shot total as well, but my favorite widely available play is Teravainen over 2.5 shots at +100 or better.
Igor Shesterkin — Over 29.5 Saves -120 (play 29.5 to -135)
We missed on this in Game 1, but I definitely see a lot of reason to go back to this play at this current number. Throughout the course of this series, the over at 29.5 should stay profitable.
New York clearly did a number of things well in Game 1, but some of that has to do with how flat Carolina looked. In turn, the Canes didn't produce their normal shot output.
Over the last 30 games, Carolina has continued to pour a lot of pucks on net, managing an average of 35.27 shots per 60 minutes. Even in a Game 1 that saw the Hurricanes control much less of play than expected, they managed 66 shot attempts altogether.
It's very reasonable to think the Hurricanes bounce back with a more complete game tonight and generate the shots on net needed to give this bet a good chance of hitting. We can trust Shesterkin to do his part.
Flames vs. Oilers, 10:30 p.m. ET
Connor McDavid — Over 3.5 Shots on Goal -165 (play to -180)
McDavid has been in entirely unbelievable form this postseason, trying his best to singlehandedly drag the Oilers toward a Stanley Cup.
The world's best player has 18 points in eight playoff games so far, averaging four shots on goal per game, including six on net in eight total Game 1 attempts.
Against the Flames in particular, McDavid is always likely to play a ton of minutes since I believe the Oilers will be chasing a lot of games in this series. I'll always be forced to play the most possible minutes to their star in order to have any chance.
Andrew Mangiapane — Over 0.5 Points +110 (play to +100)
Calgary's second line of Mangiapane, Mikael Backlund and Blake Coleman was absolutely dominant in Game 1, managing a 90.4% expected goals rate and combining for six points.
The Flames' second unit should get a lot of favorable matchups against Edmonton, and I expect that line to continue its dominance throughout the series.
We've lost some value compared to the +125 from Game 1, but that's reasonable since Mangiapane managed three points and looked great.
I really felt Mangiapane did a number of things well in the first round against Dallas and was far more dangerous than his stats suggested. Obviously, pretty much no one in that series put up impressive offensive numbers.
Calgary won't average nine goals a game in this series, but I do think it's realistic that they produce four or more consistently against Mike Smith in the Edmonton net. With that, I foresee a strong output from Mangiapane.
At +110 for him to manage a point tonight, I certainly feel we have some value. I'd play this one down to +100.
