Tuesday's heavyweight slate of games is a prop bettor's dream, so let's dive into my favorite NHL player props angles and the logic behind each one.
We will kick things off with the chalkier, shorter odds plays, and then we'll get progressively closer to punt zone as we go down the list.
William Nylander Over 3.5 Shots on Goal (+100 at BetMGM)
Ducks vs Maple Leafs
7 p.m. ET
By the time the puck drops on this contest, Toronto may realistically be skating as the largest favorite the NHL has seen to this point this season.
The chances that Toronto heavily controls play and pours 40+ shots on goal are very high, and therefore shot prop markets for Leafs skaters should look drastically different price-wise than in contests vs. even middle-of-the-pack sides.
Yet, let's use Auston Matthews as an example. His standard "SOG" lines may be more well known in the niche betting world that is the NHL, but his price remains very close to standard with an O/U of 4.5 priced at -110 with most shops.
Anaheim has allowed 37.86 shots against per 60 minutes this season, which is the worst mark in the entire league.
That number jumps notably on night two of a back-to-back situation, as Anaheim has allowed an average of 43 shots against per game on night two of a back-to-back.
As a result, Leafs skaters are automatically in a smash spot. Matthews props hold some strong merit as well, but my favorite shot target is William Nylander, and here's why.
Nylander has averaged 5.2 shots on goal per game over his last five contests, and he is absolutely on fire with 12 goals and 20 points in his last 15 games played.
Nylander is among the more dynamic skaters in the entire league, and he's currently playing with a vast amount of confidence. Extra time and space is the exact last thing you ever want to give Nylander, yet anyone who has seen the Ducks play this season knows he will get lots of each Tuesday.
We'll take Nylander o3.5 SOG, which is available at -110 at BetMGM.
Leon Draisaitl Over 2.5 Shots on Goal (-135 at DraftKings)
Oilers vs. Predators
8 p.m. ET
Leon Draisaitl will be a less common shot prop target tonight due to the fact that he is currently trending well below this number.
However, Draisaitl's 1.8 shot-on-goal average over the last five games is simply an extreme anomaly compared to a larger sample of his play, and it's worth laying the juice to back Draisaitl with his total offered at a rare 2.5 in this matchup.
Draisaitl is one of the league's very best goal scorers, and since the 2018-2019 season, he has pretty consistently put up goals at a 50-goal pace. Draisaitl averaged 3.47 shots on goal per game a season ago, and he is going to trend around that this season.
His recent form looks completely on par with what we are used to seeing, and the stark drop-off in recent shot production seems entirely random and not worthy of heavy price adjustment.
Nashville has allowed the 11th most shots against in the league this season, and it is a plus matchup. The fact that the Oilers remain entrenched in a very close playoff race is another positive factor, as Edmonton is in no position to attempt to manage time on ice in close contests.
Connor McDavid, Draisaitl and Zach Hyman will tilt the ice at five-on-five tonight, and I'll bet that means three shots on goal for one of the league's most consistent goal scorers.
Casey Mittelstadt Over 0.5 Points (-108 at BetRivers)
Kings vs. Sabres
7 p.m. ET
With Jeff Skinner sidelined due to suspension, Casey Mittelstadt will slide in to one of the league's top forward units alongside Alex Tuch and Tage Thompson.
Mittelstadt will also be elevated to the Sabres top power play unit, which has clicked at a 28% this season due in large to the play of Thompson and Rasmus Dahlin, who will both still be skating in this contest.
Los Angeles has allowed four goals against per game over the last 12 contests, and that presents an excellent target.
In all likelihood, Mittelstadt will be on the ice for two Sabres goals at a minimum, and the chances he gets a touch and garners a point in some fashion are higher than a price of -108 suggests.
Jean-Luc Foudy Anytime Goalscorer (+500 at FanDuel)
Flyers vs. Avalanche
9 p.m. ET
Jean-Luc Foudy dropping to 75th overall in the 2020 NHL Entry Draft seemed kind of silly at the time, and it seems more ridiculous watching an early sample of his play at the NHL level.
Of course, the absolutely stacked Cup champion Avalanche were the ones who ultimately pulled the trigger and claimed Foudy, and he appears likely to vindicate that selection moving forward.
With so many bodies off the ice. Foudy is being given a legitimate role in the lineup, and he has already claimed a spot on the second power-play unit. He was one of the more noticeable Avs skaters over the last two matchups vs. St. Louis and New York, and he is going to be noticeable tonight versus Philly.
Foudy has put nine shots on goal over the last four contests. In his matchup against the Flyers, I'll bet he gets two or more on target again, and backing a first NHL tally coming at +500 is very interesting.
Pick: J. Foudy Anytime Goalscorer (+500) |
What is QuickSlip?
QuickSlip is an Action Network feature that allows users to automatically pre-load their bet slip at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Alex Ovechkin Last Goalscorer (+750 at DraftKings)
Capitals vs. Blackhawks
9 p.m. ET
Alex Ovechkin has been the final goalscorer in each of the Capitals' last three games, and five of 10 overall.
The logic here is that the Capitals are trying to feed Ovechkin empty netters to allow their Captain to record his 800th NHL tally and continue chasing down Gretzky for the NHL's all-time goals record.
As I previously wrote, I expect that Washington should be leading heading down the stretch often in this matchup, which will allow the team another opportunity to try to gift Ovechkin a goal.
If Ovechkin cages an empty netter in the final minute, that is almost always going to be the final goal of the game, so in a spot where Washington is likely to win, this is a really fun and logical longshot.
