We have a nice 12-game main slate on Thursday, so we have plenty of opportunities to look for exploitable prop bets by leveraging our NHL Models and Trends tool at Fantasy Labs, as well as the Bet Labs database.
Here are two props I’m eyeing tonight, with the first puck drop at 7 p.m. ET.
Note: All lines are from Bovada.
Rangers LW Chris Kreider
Prop: 3.0 shots on goal (-110)
San Jose has allowed the fourth-fewest shots per game to start the season, averaging a paltry 24.8 shots against over its first four games. Our proprietary shot prediction metric in models has Kreider pegged for only 1.99 shots on goal today, below his 2.35 average over the past year.
It’s a tough matchup for a lower-volume shooter as it is in the 75th percentile overall over that same time period.
The Pick: Under
Blackhawks C Jonathan Toews
Prop: 2.5 shots on goal (-120)
Surprisingly, Minnesota has allowed the second-most shots per game to start the season, averaging a voluminous 41.0 shots against over its first two games.
The Blackhawks captain shredded the Wild for 3.4 shots per game last season in five meetings, nearly a half a shot more than his 2.96 average over the past year. Our models see Toews closer in line with is matchup-skewed average, coming in with the second-highest shot prediction on the slate (3.62) shots at the center position.
The Pick: Over
