NHL Odds & Pick for Sharks vs. Jets: Can Winnipeg Extend Win Streak to Five?

Sharks vs. Jets Odds

The Winnipeg Jets have come out of the gates flying, recording at least a point in five of their first seven games, and sitting one point out of the division lead. They conclude their California road trip against the surprising San Jose Sharks on Saturday evening.

Jets Still Finding a Way Despite Underwhelming Metrics

Don't let their 4-2-1 record fool you; the Jets have issues. Winnipeg has been ineffective at five-on-five, and a few indicators suggest that they are due for regression.

First, the Jets are skating around with a bloated PDO, which combines shooting and save percentages into one metric. At the end of the season, all shooting and save percentages will average out to 1.000. However, the Jets currently sit tied for the third-highest PDO at 1.056 at five-on-five.

Second, when we compare their actual output to expected values, there is an apparent disconnect which is indirectly reflected in the PDO. The Jets have an expected goals-for percentage of 47.1% through seven games, while their actual goals-for percentage is 60.0%.

What's reflected in their expected values are their game scores from their first seven games, in which they have been objectively outplayed in four of them.  The Jets have been dummied in three of those games, posting an expected goals-for percentage below 36.4%.

Considering their PDO relative to their game scores, it clearly illustrates that the Jets are operating above expected levels and will regress towards the mean. That will translate to fewer undeserved wins and more tough losses.

Sharks Finding Form Early

The Sharks expected goals-for percentage is worse than the Jets, but they've struck a more sustainable balance. San Jose's actual percentage is 5.7% higher than expected, compared to a 12.9% difference with the Jets, and their PDO is closer to average at 1.009.

Home ice has been an advantage for the Sharks, but they haven't translated that to wins yet this season. The Sharks have out-shot and out-chanced their opponents in scoring and high-danger chances but have accumulated a 0.915 PDO through two home games.

The Sharks have been effective at limiting their opponents, allowing a combined 28 scoring chances and 13 high-danger chances at five-on-five through two home games. The Sharks have already shown that they have the structure to limit the Jets' attack.

Sharks vs. Jets Pick

I like this spot for the Sharks. The Jets continue to overachieve relative to their metrics, and San Jose has been effective on home ice. It's a short price on the home side, and we're taking the Sharks to win.

Pick: Sharks -115