Stanley Cup Final Game 4: Avalanche vs. Lightning Odds
| Avalanche Odds | -105 |
| Lightning Odds | -115 |
| Over/Under | 6 (+105 / -125) |
| Time | 8 p.m. ET |
| TV | ABC / ESPN+ |
| Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute NHL Odds here. | |
The Tampa Bay Lightning used their home ice to its full advantage in Game 3 of the Stanley Cup Final, cutting the ColoradoAvalanche's series lead to 2-1. Now, they can turn the final into a best-of-three series with another win in their friendly confines.
Offense has been a common theme in the final, with all three games going over the total. However, both teams have played a stifling brand of defense that lends itself to a low-scoring game.
Let's dive into the matchup and find some betting value in Avalanche vs. Lightning Game 4.
Colorado Avalanche
Nobody has been able to reign in the Avalanche this postseason. The Western Conference Champions are averaging 4.6 goals per game en route to a 14-3 record. In doing so, the Avs have elevated their scoring metrics beyond sustainable levels, putting themselves at risk of regression over the coming games.
The Avalanche ended the regular season with an 8.9% shooting percentage at five-on-five, increasing to 10.7% across all strengths. So far this postseason, those metrics have been elevated to 9.7% and 11.5%, respectively. Colorado was held to two goals on Monday, which came on the man advantage. That was the sixth straight game in which the Lightning held their opponents to zero goals at five-on-five, a span that includes just seven goals against.
That brings into focus another trend we've caught onto from the Avs. Colorado has executed their powerplay flawlessly this season, operating one of the most efficient units in the league. However, as powerplay opportunities dry up, so too do their scoring chances.
A more disciplined effort from the Lightning would prevent the Avalanche from having the additional scoring opportunities they rely heavily on.
Tampa Bay Lightning
As noted, scoring has been hard to come by at the Amalie Arena this postseason. Improved team defense and Andrei Vasilevskiy are two factors shifting the balance in Tampa Bay's favor, and we're expecting both to be an emphasis in Game 4.
The Lightning have stymied opponents at home, limiting guests to six or fewer high-danger chances in six of nine home games. They aren't making scoring chances any easier to create, holding opponents to 18 or fewer in five of nine.
That correlates with improved play from Vasilevskiy, who has allowed just six goals at five-on-five at home this postseason, resulting in a 97.2% save percentage. He's been equally impressive stopping shots across all strengths, posting a 94.7% save percentage.
Scoring hasn't flowed naturally for the two-time defending champions, but we have seen them deploy a more effective offense at home. Tampa's scoring jumps to 3.9 goals per game at home, compared to just 2.4 as the visitors.
It's evident that the Lightning rely on line matching to hamper their opponents' scoring and get their skilled group out under more ideal circumstances. That should help them again on Wednesday night.
Avalanche vs. Lightning Pick
Although we can't dismiss the importance of Tampa Bay's defensive structure, nobody has been able to solve Vasilevskiy at home. Colorado was limited to two goals on Monday night, and further correction could be expected as their shooting percentages fall back to average.
Along with the Bolts' line matching at home, we're anticipating goals coming at a premium tonight. That plays right into the Lightning's MO at home, leaving an advantage in backing them on the moneyline.
Pick: Lightning Moneyline (-110) | Under 6 (-115)
