Check out the Stanley Cup Final odds with our expert picks and predictions for this year's Oilers vs. Panthers best-of-seven series.
After their recent conference championships, the Edmonton Oilers and Florida Panthers kick off the Stanley Cup Final on Saturday (8 p.m. ET, ABC & ESPN+) at Amerant Bank Arena in Sunrise, Florida.
The Panthers are small -130 favorites (56.5% implied win probability) to win the 2023-24 Stanley Cup Final while the Oilers are priced at +110 in the best-of-seven series. Early bettors are riding with the Panthers.
This year's Stanley Cup Final schedule runs from June 8-24 with Florida as the host in the 2-2-1-1-1 format. All games air on ABC and stream on ESPN+ at 8 p.m. ET (5 p.m. PT).
And if you want some action as this year's Stanley Cup Final plays out, our NHL experts have you covered with a variety of series bets and other futures to grab before Saturday's Game 1 action. Check out those picks and predictions below.
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Stanley Cup Final: Odds, Picks & Predictions
Canadian Curse to Continue
Tony Sartori: The Stanley Cup Final is officially upon us, and we have what should be a great series between the Florida Panthers and Edmonton Oilers. With that said, I believe the Canadian curse will live on and an American team will once again hoist the Cup at the conclusion of this series.
Not only that, but I believe the Panthers won't even need all seven games to do it. No matter how you slice it up, Florida has been the superior team this postseason, ranking higher than Edmonton in expected goals for per 60 minutes (xGF/60), expected goals against per 60 minutes (xGA/60), and expected goal differential per 60 minutes.
Even if you isolate those metrics to include only 5-on-5 play, the Panthers still outrank the Oilers in all three of those main analytical categories. Not only are they the superior team both offensively and defensively, but they also boast the goaltending advantage.
While Stuart Skinner has been playing well for Edmonton, he is just simply not on the level of Sergei Bobrovsky, who remains one of the world's best netminders. Bobrovsky has now allowed two or fewer goals in 10 of his past 11 starts, posting an 8-3 record with a commanding .921 SV% and 1.77 GAA over that stretch.
He is more than capable of stopping Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, especially considering that Bobrovsky is 4-1 over his past five games against the Oilers with a .936 SV% and 2.03 GAA. Florida just lost in a Cup Final last year while this will be McDavid and company's first time playing in one.
With the edge offensively, defensively, in net and the Cup experience, I will gladly back Florida to win this series in six games or fewer. So, I'll bet -1.5 games for this series spread bet.
Pick: Panthers -1.5 Games (+160 at DraftKings)
Rightful Favorite for Conn Smythe Trophy
Grant White: The Edmonton Oilers might be series underdogs against the Florida Panthers, but the price continues to drop on Connor McDavid in the Conn Smythe futures market. After clinching the Western Conference title, McDavid was hovering around +250 to win the playoff MVP award; however, that has dipped to +220 over the ensuing days.
Regardless of whether Edmonton hoists the Stanley Cup, McDavid is primed to become the first Conn Smythe winner for the Oilers since Bill Ranford 34 years ago.
No one can do what McDavid does. The three-time Hart Trophy winner has a mind-numbing 70.2% expected goals-for rating across all strengths this postseason, leading all playoff skaters in points. Moreover, his 31 points is the fifth-highest playoff total since 2009, and that's without even stepping a foot on the ice in the final yet.
There's a precedence for non-Cup-winning players being awarded the Conn Smythe Trophy, and McDavid is approaching that territory. He's got 12 more points than the highest-scoring Florida Panther, and he's gotten better reach round of the playoffs.
If McDavid continues his trajectory, there will be no denying him the Conn Smythe Trophy whether the Oilers triumph or not. The price will only continue to drop as we progress into the Stanley Cup Final, meaning now is the time to ack the Oilers captain. At the current offerings, +220 is the best available (via FanDuel and DraftKings), but I would play this at +200 or better.
Pick: Connor McDavid to win Conn Smythe Trophy (+220 at FanDuel & DraftKings)
Bet on Overtime Thriller
Carol Schram: A year ago, the Florida Panthers and Edmonton Oilers shared something in common: They both saw their Stanley Cup hopes dashed by the Vegas Golden Knights.
They learned from their disappointment and are now both 2024 Stanley Cup finalists. For both sides, this year’s success has come as much from strong defensive play as from sharp scoring.
And these two sides won’t just play each other tight at 5-on-5. They’re the top two penalty-killing teams in the playoffs, and they stymied their conference-final opponents by giving up next to nothing on the man advantage. The Oilers haven’t surrendered a goal while shorthanded since Game 3 of the second round. The Panthers allowed just one against the New York Rangers.
Long story short: That means these Stanley Cup Final games could take awhile to get decided.
The Oilers opened their Western Conference Final with a 3-2 double-overtime win over the Dallas Stars, with McDavid potting the winner 32 seconds into the fifth period. The Panthers haven’t been to double OT yet this year but did go to sudden death three times in their six-game series against the Rangers. And last year, they triumphed in that four-overtime thriller in Game 1 against the Carolina Hurricanes, which set the stage for their series sweep.
Just one double-overtime game offers bettors a solid opportunity to cash a high-value ticket. Count on these teams to play patient hockey and wait as long as it takes for opportunity to present itself.
Pick: 1+ Game to reach 2OT (+390 at FanDuel) | Play down to +300
The +1400 Flier for Evan Bouchard
Ryan Dadoun: Paul Coffey holds the record for the most playoff points for a defenseman in a single run at 37. It seems like an almost unbreaking feat, but Evan Bouchard has an outside chance of doing just that after recording 27 points through 18 postseason games this year.
It’s still a long shot – but not outside the realm of possibilities.
Bouchard recorded 11 points across seven contests against Vancouver in the second round, so if this series goes long – which is very possible given the level of talent between Florida and Edmonton – then we wouldn’t be asking of Bouchard something that he hasn’t already done before. To look at it from another angle: Bouchard would need to record 1.57 points per contest over a seven-game series, which wouldn’t be a herculean task when measured against his 1.5 PPG in the 2024 playoffs.
To emphasize the point, though: This is not a "safe" bet, and if you’re going to pursue it, I recommend only throwing a little bit at it. Still, if you’re interested in taking a small flier at something high-risk, high-reward, then this is a fun one to consider. After all, who wouldn’t want to see a little bit of history (outside of Panthers fans in this specific case)?
You could also consider the bet for Bouchard to record 37+ points, which comes at +750 odds. It’s a nice compromise if you want something a little more realistic (but still not safe!) with a high potential payout. You also have the option to put a little into both bets, but again, be careful here.
It’s worth adding that DraftKings is offering Connor McDavid variants at 47+ points (+1800) and 48+ points (+3000) to align with Wayne Gretzky’s 47-point playoff record, but even as a long odds bid, I wouldn’t recommend that this year.
McDavid has 31 points in 18 outings, so matching Gretzky’s total would involve him recording roughly 2.29 points per contest the rest of the way, provided a seven-game series. McDavid has a 1.72 PPG in the 2024 playoffs, so he would need to make a big leap in the Stanley Cup Final to tie or break the record. While Bouchard breaking his record at least has a measure of possibility under the right circumstances, I can’t imagine McDavid getting to 47+ points this year.
Pick: Evan Bouchard to Record 38+ Points +1400 (DraftKings)
