NHL betting analyst Nicholas Martin has found three plays ahead of Monday’s pivotal Game 3 of the Stanley Cup Finals between the Colorado Avalanche and Tampa Bay Lightning.
From a total play to game props and player props, check out Martin's three best bets below.
Under 6 · -120 (Play to -130)
As the series shifts to Tampa Bay, I think a lot of fairly neutral observers are hoping to see the Lightning manage a better performance and make what was a very promising final into a real series.
Colorado absolutely dominated the opening two contests of the series, controlling play to an expected goals share of 66.15%, including an expected goals against per 60 of just 1.50.
All season, the Avalanche have been spectacular defensively, and we have surely seen that narrative come to fruition to start this series.
Personally, I don't believe there's much chance Tampa Bay turns this into an interesting series, but I do believe the Bolts will find a way to hang around and perhaps steal a game as the series shifts to Amalie Arena.
Tampa Bay was entirely humiliated in all aspects of Game 2, but I believe the Lightning will find a way to at least sharpen things up defensively and give Andrei Vasilevskiy a fighter's chance of making a difference and allowing a low total.
I believe a sharper effort from Tampa Bay won't mean a massive offensive breakthrough, but rather a lower-scoring game in which defensive breakdowns are hard to come by. And you would have to expect that's the sort of game Lightning head coach Jon Cooper would love to be in against the high-powered Avs at this point.
We have seen each of Tampa's Bays series this postseason trend toward lower totals moving into the later games, and I believe Game 3 will fit that narrative. I see some strong value for the game to stay under six goals at -120.
No Goal in First 10 Minutes of 2nd Period · +165
This has been a strong prop for us this postseason. We've seen a number of spots in which the under seems like the strong play, and by the start of the second period, we're in the midst of a defensive struggle that makes this prop more likely to hit than live algorithms suggest.
Teams will often be fully settled into the game by this point and can be less likely to make mistakes. Should the game settle into this kind of narrative, we have a better chance than a +165 number suggests.
Corey Perry Anytime Goalscorer (+330) & Anytime Point (+168)
Brayden Point is a game-time decision, which is the key factor behind this play. But it seems more likely that Point will ultimately sit than play.
Perry has thrived in contests without Point this postseason, due to the fact that he shifts to the bumper spot on Tampa's stellar power-play unit. That group will need to be excellent moving forward for the Bolts to have any chance in this series.
Perry has managed three goals and three assists in 10 games without Point this postseason. A continued output anywhere near that gives us some strong value at these long numbers.
