Wednesday NHL Odds, Picks: Betting Model Predictions for 4 Games, Including Oilers vs. Lightning (Feb. 23)

There are four games Wednesday night that the Action Network's betting models have indicated value on. Our models are player-level, factoring in all the injuries and COVID-related absences across the league that have made handicapping NHL games so weird this season. These games include Oilers vs. Lightning, Jets vs. Stars, Avalanche vs. Red Wings and Sabres vs. Canadiens. Read further to see what these picks are and the theory behind our model projections. NHL Model Projection Edges Odds and betting data last updated at 1 p.m. ET on Wednesday. _PromoID=[12935, 12933, 12932, 12940] Edmonton Oilers vs. Tampa Bay Lightning 7:30 p.m. ET This is our best pick on the docket tonight. Our model tabs the spread for this matchup just +0.19, indicating the Oilers should be around even-money favorites for this contest. Meanwhile, the best price on the market is at +1.5 (-140) at Caesars, good for a 12% edge. That's an A+ grade from our models, which is an egregiously-high grade for a projection. For reference, betting based solely on these model edges works best when they're graded as a B or higher. Our projections also price the Oilers roughly +110 underdogs on the moneyline, while the best grab on the market is +175 at Caesars Sportsbook. That's a near-10% edge, good for a very solid A grade. Picks: Oilers +1.5 (-140) or better, Oilers +175 or better Winnipeg Jets vs. Dallas Stars 7:30 p.m. ET Our data found value on both the moneyline and totals in this contest. Models indicate the total should be priced at 6.3. The best number available for bettors is 5.5 (-114) at SugarHouse. That's a roughly 4.1% betting edge, good for a B- grade from our models. As aforementioned, our projections indicate that a B grade or above represent the most profitable edges, so make sure this pick is best for you before putting it in. Our models also say that the Jets should be just +107 underdogs. Meanwhile, the best price on the market is with PointsBet at +130. Picks: Over 5.5 (-114) or better, Jets +130 or better Colorado Avalanche vs. Detroit Red Wings 7:30 p.m. ET This game's betting model edge is on the total. The projections believe the total should be 6.88 goals. Meanwhile, the best price on the market is on over 6 goals (-125) at PointsBet. With that vig, our models only give this pick a B- grade. Make sure to develop your own, separate thesis on this pick before tailing, as we recommend for grades lower than B. Picks: Over 6.5 (-125) or better Buffalo Sabres vs. Montreal Canadiens 7:30 p.m. ET Finally, our projections like the spread in this Eastern Conference clash. The puck line of Sabres +1.5 is undervalued, our numbers say. The Sabres should be -0.28 favorites, actually – not underdogs. Still, the best price on the market at +1.5 has a vig of -280; that's at FanDuel. Because of the steep vig, this model edge only has a B grade. Pick: Sabres +1.5 (-280) or better The must-have app for NHL bettors The best NHL betting scoreboard Free picks from proven pros Live win probabilities for your bets DOWNLOAD NOW