Angels vs. Brewers Odds & Betting Predictions - April 29, 2023

Angels at Brewers

12:10 am • BSWI

Los Angeles Angels

0-0

1 - 2

Milwaukee Brewers

1-2

pitcher		team	era	w-l
W.Miley			3.14	9-4
T.Anderson			5.43	6-6

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Angels 0-0	+1.5-170	o9-115	+115
Brewers 1-2	-1.5+140	u9-105	-140

Saturday 12:10 a.m.

April 29, 2023

American Family FieldMilwaukee

Under 9.5-115

0.5u

Brewers dreadful v lefties (71 wRC+), both pens sub 3.3 ERA

LAA +118

0.4u

LAA +105 (F5)

0.5u

Bet365 11:33.

LAA +115

MIL -142

0.7u

Available at FanDuel. I've got the Brewers at 61.6% to win versus 58.7% implied. Tyler Anderson has gotten off to a rough start this year thanks to low velocity and lower spin rates. Wade Miley gets a super difficult matchup but has done a nice job -- both last year and this year -- of suppressing hard contact. He also has an above-average bullpen and defense to back him up. There's enough value here for me to buy into what the numbers are saying.

T.Anderson u5.5 Ks-154

Available on FanDuel. Anderson's velocity, spin rates, and movement are all down this year, and it has allowed his numbers to crater. He has just a 12.0% strikeout rate in 4 starts with a 9.5% swinging-strike rate. That number indicates his strikeout rate should increase. I'm just skeptical it'll increase to the point where there's no value in under 5.5 at -154. The Brewers strike out a ton against lefties, so this may be the spot to do it, but I don't think the matchup can overcome the issues he has right now.

LAA +123

LAA +120

0.5u

Need +120 or better

Experts, Pros Betting Reds-Athletics
Alex Kolodziej•
Apr 28, 2023 UTC

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The Angels are just 0-6 (.000) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season -- tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .128.

The Brewers are 2-8 (.200) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season -- tied for 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .128.

The Angels are just 14-3 (.824) when leading entering the 8th inning this season -- 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .903.

The Brewers are just 3-5 (.375) when their opponents score in the first inning this season -- tied for 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .415.

Luke Voit has a miss rate of 77% on changeups this season -- worst among hitters with at least 36 total PA's-- 0 Percentile. Tyler Anderson has thrown his changeup 28% of the time this season -- 13th highest among starting pitchers with at least 9 total CH-- 90th Percentile.

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MLB Public Betting

Brewers are 3-2 in their last 5 games.
Brewers are 3-2 in their last 5 games against the spread
Brewers are 43-38 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 1 of Brewers' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 40 of Brewers' 81 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Brewers	87-75	44-37	43-38	43-48	43-26
Angels	82-80	43-38	39-42	11-17	70-61

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Brewers	81-70-11	40-33-8	41-37-3	41-43-7	40-25-4
Angels	74-80-8	37-40-4	37-40-4	10-17-1	62-62-7

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Brewers	93-69	47-34	46-35	54-37	38-31
Angels	63-99	32-49	31-50	9-19	54-77

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Apr 26th	DET	W 6-2	-1.5 W	U 8	MIL -225
Apr 25th	DET	L 3-4	-1.5 L	U 8.5	DET -175
Apr 24th	DET	L 2-4	-1.5 L	U 8.5	DET -151
Apr 23rd	BOS	L 5-12	-1.5 L	O 8	BOS -171
Apr 22nd	BOS	W 5-4	-1.5 L	O 8.5	MIL -130

Mike Trout
OF
Trout is out with knee
Out
Jo Adell
OF
Adell is out with oblique
Out
Jose Soriano
P
Soriano is out with shoulder
Out
Patrick Sandoval
P
Sandoval is out for season with elbow
Out for Season
Chase Silseth
P
Silseth is out with elbow
Out

Christian Yelich
OF
Yelich is out with back
Out
Brandon Woodruff
P
Woodruff is out with shoulder
Out
Robert Gasser
P
Gasser is out with elbow
Out

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PITCHER		PC	IP	K	ER
LT.Anderson, P		109	6.2	7	1
LA. Loup, P		23	1.1	1	1

HITTERS	H-AB	R	RBI
1T.Ward, LF	0-4	0	0
2M.Trout, CF	1-4	0	0
3S.Ohtani, DH	1-4	0	0
4A.Rendon, 3B	1-4	1	0
5H.Renfroe, RF	0-4	0	0
6B.Drury, 2B	1-4	0	0
7G.Urshela, 1B	3-4	0	1
8C. Wallach, C	0-3	0	0
8M.Thaiss, PH	0-1	0	0
9Z.Neto, SS	2-3	0	0

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
LW.Miley, P	84	6	2	1
RJ.Payamps, P	14	1	0	0
RP.Strzelecki, P	15	1	0	0
RD.Williams, P	13	1	1	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1C.Yelich, LF	1-3	0	0	0
2W.Adames, SS	1-4	1	1	1
3W.Contreras, C	1-4	1	0	0
4M. Brosseau, 3B	2-4	0	0	0
4B.Perkins, PR	0-0	0	0	0
4B.Perkins, RF	0-0	0	0	0
5B.Anderson, RF	0-4	0	0	0
5B.Anderson, 3B	0-4	0	0	0
6L. Voit, 1B	0-4	0	0	0
7R.Tellez, DH	2-3	0	0	1
8O.Miller, 2B	1-4	0	0	0
8B.Turang, 2B	0-0	0	0	0
9J.Wiemer, CF	0-2	0	0	0